Global Dairy Update August 2022
• Another step in low carbon transition.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Wet start to the season in New Zealand.
Production decline across EU. Australia ends
season on lower monthly production.
• New Zealand, US and Australia monthly
exports up. EU exports decline.
• China imports continue to decline. Middle East
& Africa, Latin America and Asia imports up.
• Early season collections in New Zealand
and Australia.
• Celebrating serving 50 million Kickstart Breakfasts
nationwide.
Key Dates
22 September 2022
FY22 Annual Results
Announcement
10 November 2022
Fonterra Co‑operative Group
Annual Meeting
14 November 2022
Fonterra Shareholders' Fund
Annual Meeting
AUGUST 2022
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for June 2022
compared to June 2021
Change for May 2022
compared to May 2021
Change for the 12 months
to July 2022
Change for the 12 months
to July 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2022
Change for the 12 months
to May 2022
0.29.25.7
3.90.40.4
1.6
4.4
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Wet start to the season in
New Zealand. Production
decline across EU. Australia
ends season on lower
monthly
production
New Zealand milk
production¹ was down 5.7%
on a litres basis, (down 5.5%
on milk solids basis) in July
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The start of the season was
marked by record rainfall
and warmer temperatures,
adversely impacting pastures
and milk production.
June and July account for only
a small proportion, around 2%
of total milk production for the
full season.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to July was
down 4.4% on the year prior.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for July,
see page 5 for details.
Australia milk production
d
ecreased 9.2% in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Low pasture growth
, labour
constraints and increasing
input prices continue to impact
Australian milk production.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to June was 3.9%
lower than the year prior.
New season Australian milk
production is forecast to
remain flat to modest growth
year-on-year as milk income
margin over feed a
nd input
costs remains positive.
Fonterra collection
s in Australia
are reported for July, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production² was
down 1.6% in May compared to
the same period the year prior.
Peak milk production was
weaker year
‑
on‑year as
dry weather, limited feed
availability and rising input
costs impacted production
across most regions.
Production declines were
observed most notably in
Germany, France, Netherlands
and Ireland.
EU milk production for the
12 months to May declined
0.4% compared to the same
period the year prior, driven
by declines in Germany,
Netherlands and France.
US milk production
increased by 0.2% in July,
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The year‑on‑year increase
was constrained by weaker
cow numbers compared to
last season as herds sizes are
rebuilding slowly.
Milk production for the
12 months to July was down
0.4% compared to the same
period the year prior.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2
E
xcludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
New Zealand, US and
Australia monthly exports
up. EU exports decline
Total New Zealand
dairy exports were up
up 8.2%, or 22,525 MT, in
July compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher shipments of AMF,
SMP, butter and WMP to
China. Exports of WMP and
SMP to Southeast Asia were
also strong.
Exports for the 12 months to
July were down by 7.4%, or
267,969 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by decreases
in WMP and cheese.
EU dairy exports
decreased 7.2%, or
44,543 MT, in May compared
to the same period the
year prior.
Lower export volumes were
driven by decreases in fluid
milk products, SMP and
WMP, and partially offset by
increases in infant formula
and cultured products.
Exports for the 12 months
to May were down 5.8%,
or 427,599 MT, on the
previous comparable period,
driven by declines in fluid
milk products, SMP, WMP,
whey and partially offset by
increases in MPC, lactose
and caseinate.
US dairy exports
increased 11.0% in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Stronger demand for cheese
by Mexico and South Korea,
lactose by New Zealand,
whey by Canada and WPC by
China is driving this increase.
This is partially offset by lower
shipments of SMP to Mexico
and Southeast Asia.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were up 5.3%, or
141,650 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by cheese, lactose, fluid milk
products, butter and AMF.
Australia dairy
exports
increased 11.9%, or 8,479 MT,
in June compared to the
same period the year prior.
Export volumes continue to
grow year-on-year, driven by
high demand for fluid milk
products and SMP from
China. Increases in whey
and other powders were
also observed.
Exports for th
e 1 2 months
to June were up 20.6%, or
163,244 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products and SMP.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for July 2022
compared July 2021
Change for June 2022
compared to June 2021
Change for June 2022
compared to June 2021
Change for May 2022
compared to May 2021
Change for the 12 months
to July 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2022
Change for the 12 months
to June 2022
Change for the 12 months
to May 2022
11.011.9
8.2
20.6
7.2
5.35.87.4
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year‑on‑year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China imports continue
to decline. Middle East &
Africa, Latin America and
Asia imports up
Latin America dairy
import volumes
¹ increased
9.5%, or 15,303 MT, in May
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was driven
by stronger demand for
cheese and fluid milk by the
Dominican Republic and
Mexico, AMF by Mexico,
SMP by Colombia and
partially offset by decreases
of lactose by Brazil.
Imports for the 12 months to
May were up 1.2% compared
to the same period the
year prior, driven by higher
volumes of cheese, whey, and
MPC and SMP and partially
offset by declines in WMP
and fluid milk products.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes
¹
increased 9.9%, or 41,555 MT,
in May compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher demand for SMP and
whey by the Philippines and
Malaysia, WMP by Thailand,
lactose by Indonesia and
WPC by Singapore.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 4.4%, or
214,909 MT, compared to the
same period the year prior,
driven by higher volumes
of whey, WPC and SMP and
partially offset by a decrease
in fluid milk products.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes
¹
increased 16.6%, or
65,070 MT, in May compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher volumes of SMP and
WMP by Algeria, and infant
formula by Saudi Arabia
and partially offset by
lower volumes of fluid milk
products by Libya.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 10.8%, or
515,098 MT, compared to
May the year prior, driven by
increases in cheese, SMP and
fluid milk products.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
23.6%, or 82,896 MT, in
July compared to the same
period the year prior.
Demand remained limited
following lockdown
restrictions but it is worth
noting 2021 import levels
were very strong.
Lower volumes of WMP,
SMP, fluid milk products and
whey were partially offset by
an increase in infant formula,
lactose and AMF imports.
Imports for the 12 months
to July were down 11.5%, or
471,651 MT, driven by whey,
fluid milk products, SMP and
infant formula.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for May 2022
compared to May 2021
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for May 2022
compared to May 2021
Change for May 2022
compared to May 2021
Change for the 12 months
to May 2022
Change for the 12 months
to May 2022
Change for the 12 months
to May 2022
23.69.99.5
4.410.8
%
Change for the 12 months
to July 2022
11.5
16.6
1.2
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 31 July
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 July
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 July
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 July
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
Change for July 2022
compared to July 2021
2.79.73.52.4
2.722.33.80.6
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections for the first
month of the new season
were 5.3 million kgMS,
a 2.7% decrease on July
last season.
Both off‑farm collections
and third party intake were
down year‑on‑year, 1.3% and
13.6% respectively.
The new season outlook
remains balanced, with
increasing likelihood of
another La Niña weather
pattern developing in late
winter/early spring.
North Island milk
collections in July were
17.2 million kgMS, 3.5%
behind July last season.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 28.7 million kgMS, 3.8%
behind last season.
The North Island
experienced very wet
conditions throughout July
creating some challenges
going into calving. Some
pasture damage has been
reported which will need to
be rectified over spring.
South Island milk
collections in July were
1.8 million kgMS, 9.7% higher
than last July.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 5.2 million kgMS, 22.3%
ahead of last season.
Although a large variance
in percentage terms, June
and July collections typically
represent less than 2% of full
season collections.
Central South had their
wettest July on record,
similar rainfall to what
was experienced in June
last season. Lower South
experienced favourable
winter conditions supporting
milk production and setting
them up well for calving.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for July were
19.0 million kgMS, 2.4%
lower than last July.
Season‑to‑date collections
were 33.9 million kgMS,
0.6% behind last season.
This represents only around
2% of the full season
forecast collection.
Extremely wet conditions
were experienced
throughout July, but milk
volumes have generally
been comparable to the
previous season.
Calving is in full swing in
the North Island, with the
South Island starting in
early August.
%%%
%
%
%
%%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year‑to‑date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
AUG
MAR AUG OCT JAN MAR JUN AUG OCT
JAN JUN
,
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
Tentative signs emerged that
US inflation may have peaked,
reducing expectations of how
much US interest rates may
need to rise and this, with more
upbeat US economic activity
data, produced a more positive
risk appetite in financial markets.
The NZD appreciated to above
64 US cents before reducing
following USD strength.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
16 August 2022:
The next trading event will be held on 6 September 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
3.6
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,780
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
29.2
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 4,990/MT
9.6
AMF
USD 5,005/MT
4.3
CHEDDAR
USD 5,204/MT
0.2
BUTTER
USD 3,544/MT
0.5
SMP
USD 3,417/MT
3.6
WMP
29,243
MT
LATEST AUCTION
56,088
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Another step in low
carbon transition
Fonterra is taking another
step towards its low carbon
transition with its Waitoa site
in the Waikato planning to
install a 30 megawatt wood
biomass boiler to replace a
coal boiler.
Together with Te Tumuaki o
Te Kıngitanga and local iwi
Ngati Haua, the Co‑operative
celebrated the turning of the
first sod at Waitoa.
Work will begin on the new
boiler installation later this
year, and it is expected
to be up and running in
November 2023.
The new boiler will reduce
the site’s annual emissions by
48,000 tonnes of CO₂e, the
equivalent of taking 20,000
cars off New Zealand’s roads.
Fonterra Head of
Energy and Climate,
Linda Mulvihill, says this
is another significant step
towards the Co‑operative’s
sustainability ambitions.
“This is the fourth
sustainable fuel switching
decarbonisation project
in as many years for the
Co‑operative with projects,
including Te Awamutu
and Stirling, providing us
with insights into the best
way forward along with
emissions reductions.
Grouped together these
projects reduce our CO₂e
emissions by a forecast
183,000 tonnes per annum,
the equivalent of 76,000
cars off New Zealand roads.”
The Co‑operative has an
ambition to be at net zero
emissions by 2050 and
has an interim target of a
30% absolute reduction in
manufacturing emissions by
2030 based on FY18 levels.
“Projects such as this make a
significant reduction in our
emissions. We saw that with
our Te Awamutu conversion,
which resulted in an 11%
reduction and we’re looking
forward to starting our first
site on 100% renewable
thermal energy next year at
the cheese factory in Stirling,
Otago” says Ms Mulvihill.
The new boiler will give a
boost to the local wood
biomass industry.
Wood Energy New Zealand
Director, Nigel Ellett says
"Wood Energy New Zealand
is very proud to be involved
with, and to support,
Fonterra’s move across
from coal to biomass at
their facility in Waitoa, and
growing our supply footprint
into the North Island.
The Wood Energy
New Zealand partnership,
between Pioneer Energy
and Niagara Sawmilling, was
created to support industry
and ensure quality and
security of locally sourced
wood fuel, removing risk
to our customers and
supporting their transition to
a lower carbon future."
Our Co-op
8
Celebrating serving
50 million Kickstart
Breakfasts nationwide
Fonterra is celebrating
serving 50 million breakfasts
to Kiwi kids since 2009
as part of the Kickstart
Breakfast programme.
Beyond breakfast, the
milestone recognises the
50 million possibilities
kickstarted by the
programme nationwide.
KickStart Breakfast is
a partnership between
Fonterra, Sanitarium and
the Ministry of Social
Development, designed
to positively impact child
wellbeing by providing
access to nutritious food
at school.
The programme allows
flexibility to work best
for students and their
needs, offering them the
opportunity to partake in
social activities that prepare
them for the future.
Over the breakfast table,
students are not only
kickstarting their school
day with a healthy and
nutritional breakfast, but are
developing life‑long lessons
on leadership, community
support, relationships
and responsibility.
The breakfast club
environment encourages
students to learn from
their peers, teachers and
volunteers in a social setting.
Students enjoy leading the
breakfast clubs, helping
them to develop their
leadership skills.
KickStart Breakfast engages
the whole community,
connecting families, staff
and volunteers to enable
possibilities for future
generations. Students benefit
by talking to local businesses
and external volunteers who
also are involved.
Tracey Putt, Relationship
Manager for Kickstart
Breakfast, says the 50 million
breakfast milestone has
been important to recognise
the benefits outside of just
one meal.
“KickStart Breakfast sets
students up for learning,
provides a welcoming space
and opportunities to hone
skills such as interacting
with a range of people,
building new or stronger
connections and leading or
supporting others”.
Amavi Mey, Community
Engagement Manager
for Fonterra Brands
New Zealand, says students
experience the power of
a nutritious breakfast and
valuable social interaction
both beneficial for
their learning.
“I used to be a primary
school teacher, and
Breakfast Club was at one
of the schools I worked in –
May Road in Mt Roskill. I ran
Breakfast Club twice a week
and have seen first‑hand the
difference that a breakfast
made to the children in my
class. KickStart Breakfast
is a real catalyst for other
organisations to get involved
and support, knowing that
we provide the backbone
of breakfast.
The KickStart Breakfast
programme is one of the
longest‑running, successful
collaborations between
government, business,
schools and communities in
Aotearoa, New Zealand. It
is the only national ‘food in
schools’ programme available
for any school and all
children and young people.
Running in almost
1,400 schools nationwide,
KickStart Breakfast serves
nearly 180,000 breakfasts to
students each school week.
KickStart Breakfast
provides Anchor™ Milk and
Sanitarium Weet‑Bix™ as a
nutritional foundation for a
day of learning. The Ministry
of Social Development
supports the programme
through funding, allowing
breakfast clubs to operate
nationally, five days a week.
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year‑on‑year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU to May; Australia to June; New Zealand and US to July.
NOTE: Data for EU to May; US and Australia to June; New Zealand to July.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to May; China to July.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
J U LY
2022
J
U LY
2021
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2022/23
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
19.019.5(2.4%)33.934.1(0.6%)
North Island17.217.9(3.5%)28.729.8(3.8%)
South Island1.81.69.7%5.24.322.3%
Australia5.35.4(2.7%)5.35.4(2.7%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year‑to‑date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(16 AUGUST 2022)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2022)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
29,24356,088
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
33.3%24.0%
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3, 7803, 849
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
(2.3%)(0.1%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
(3.6%)–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non‑Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update August 20222022-08-30
“• Another step in low carbon transition. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Wet start to the season in New Zealand. Production decline across EU. Australia ends season on lower monthly production. • New Zealand, US and Australia monthly exports up. EU exports decline. • China i…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update October 20222022-10-30
“• Fonterra announces sustainable finance framework. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Production down in New Zealand and Australia. US monthly production continues to improve. • New Zealand monthly exports show strong growth and US exports continue to increase. Australia and E…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update September 20222022-09-29
“• On 22 September, Fonterra announced its FY22 Annual Results. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Milk volumes down in New Zealand. US monthly production improves. Production declines in Australia and EU. • Strong growth in New Zealand monthly exports. US exports up. Australia…”