Global Dairy Update July 2024
• Fonterra confirms transactional advisors.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Australia and EU monthly production
increased. New Zealand and US monthly
production decreased.
• Australia monthly exports increased.
New Zealand, EU and US monthly
exports decreased.
• Asia, Latin America and Middle East & Africa
monthly imports increased. China monthly
imports decreased.
• Fonterra's New Zealand collections for the
first month of the 2024/25 season were
14.5 million kgMS, less than 1% of the full
season forecast.
• Fonterra’s Australia collections for the season
ended 30 June were 107.0 million kgMS, 1.1%
ahead of last season.
• Planting hundreds of natives with Trees for Survival.
Key Dates
31 July 2024
End of FY24 Financial Year
25 September 2024
FY24 Annual Results Announcement
J U LY 2 0 2 4
%%%
%%%%
%
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for June 2024
compared June 2023
Change for May 2024
compared to May 2023
Change for May 2024
compared to May 2023
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to May 2024
Change for the 12 months
to May 2024
1.03.51.1
2.90.10.5
0.7
0.8
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Australia and EU
monthly production
increased. New Zealand
and US monthly
production decreased
New Zealand milk
production decreased
1.1% on a litres basis (down
2.2% on milk solids basis) for
June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The production decrease
was mainly due to farmers
drying off calving herds,
following unfavourable
weather conditions in May
and milk price forecast
announcements.
New Zealand milk
production for the
12 months to June was
down 0.8% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for
June, see page 5 for details.
Australia milk
production increased 3.5%
in May compared to the
same period the year prior.
The production increase was
mainly due to favourable
weather conditions and
availability of irrigation
water, resulting in increased
pasture quality.
Australia milk production
for the 12 months to May
was up 2.9% on the previous
comparable period.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported for
June, see page 5 for details.
EU milk production¹
increased 0.7% in May
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The production increase
was driven by ongoing
growth in France and Poland.
Additionally, European raw
milk prices have slightly
increased to reflect tight
supplies in Western Europe.
EU milk production for
the 12 months to May was
up 0.1% on the previous
comparable period.
US milk production
decreased 1.0% in June
compared to the same period
the year prior.
The production decrease was
mainly driven by the ongoing
outbreak of Highly Pathogenic
Avian Influenza (HPAI),
resulting in smaller herd sizes
and decreased milk yield per
cow. This was partially offset
by lower feed costs, allowing
farmers to feed their cattle
increased rations.
US milk production for
the 12 months to June was
down 0.5 % on the previous
comparable period.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
Australia monthly exports
increased. New Zealand,
EU and US monthly
exports decreased
New Zealand dairy
exports decreased 6.0%, or
17,820 MT, in June compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was mainly
due to reduced demand of
whole milk powder and fluid
milk products to key markets,
such as China and Algeria.
Exports for the 12 months
to June were up 0.7%, or
23,264 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to rising
demand for SMP and cheese
from key Southeast Asian
markets such as Indonesia.
EU dairy exports
decreased 3.8%, or
22,249 MT, in May compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower export volumes of
WMP, fluid milk products and
cream to key Asian markets.
Exports for the 12 months
to May were down 2.3%, or
146,608 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due
to reduced trade with
China, Algeria, Japan, and
Saudi Arabia. This was
partially offset by higher
export volumes of cheese to
the US, alongside an increase
in whey exports.
US dairy exports
decreased 0.8%, or 1,852 MT,
in May compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was mainly due
to lower export volumes of
SMP, lactose and butter to
Southeast Asia and Canada.
This was partially offset by
higher export volumes of
cheese and whey.
Exports for the 12 months
to May were down 5.0%, or
145,479 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
lower export volumes of
American powder products
as worldwide demand
continues to decrease. This
was partially offset by an
increase of export volumes
to Mexico.
Australia dairy exports
increased 17.7%, or 9,163 MT,
in May compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase in exports
was mainly due to clearing
additional inventory held this
year compared to prior year.
Exports for the 12 months
to May were down 5.0%, or
34,708 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
the disconnect between
Australia’s domestic milk
price and global commodity
prices, making Australian
exports less competitive.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%%
%
%
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for May 2024
compared to May 2023
Change for May 2024
compared to May 2023
Change for May 2024
compared to May 2023
Change for the 12 months
to May 2024
Change for the 12 months
to May 2024
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
Change for the 12 months
to May 2024
0.8
5.0
6.0
2.3
5.0
17.7
3.8
0.7
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Asia, Latin America
and Middle East &
Africa monthly imports
increased. China monthly
imports decreased
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
2.1%, or 4,651 MT, in May
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly
due to ongoing high import
volumes of cheese by Mexico
and fluid milk products by
the Dominican Republic.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 6.2%, or
146,771 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
ongoing higher import
volumes of cheese and WMP
by Mexico and Brazil.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
increased 5.6%, or 24,576 MT,
in May compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was mainly due
to higher import volumes
of whey by Malaysia, the
Philippines, and Thailand.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 5.5 %, or
268,038 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to higher
import volumes of WMP
by Vietnam and fluid milk
products by the Philippines.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 6.4%, or
30,866 MT, in May compared
to the same period the
year prior.
The increase was driven
by ongoing high import
volumes of SMP to
Saudi Arabia, fluid milk
products to UAE, and whey
to Nigeria.
Imports for the 12 months
to May were up 5.8%, or
319,565 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
higher volumes of SMP by
Saudi Arabia, WMP to the
UAE, and cultured products
by Iraq.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
20.5%, or 58,864 MT, in
June compared to the same
period the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower import volumes of
fluid milk products, WMP
and SMP.
Imports for the 12 months
to June were down 12.2%, or
393,790 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was mainly due to
ongoing decline in import
demand of milk powder
products as China prioritises
local brands.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%%%%
%%
Change for May 2024
compared to May 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for May 2024
compared to May 2023
Change for May 2024
compared to May 2023
Change for the 12 months
to May 2024
Change for the 12 months
to May 2024
Change for the 12 months
to May 2024
20.55.62.1
5.55.8
%
Change for the 12 months
to June 2024
12.2
6.4
6.2
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%
%
%
For the 2023/24 Season
compared to previous season
Season-to-date 1 June to 30 June
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 30 June
compared to prior season
Season-to-date 1 June to 30 June
compared to prior season
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
Change for June 2024
compared to June 2023
4.229.2
29.2
6.72.1
1.26.72.1
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections in June were
6.8 million kgMS, 4.2%
above June last season.
The increase was mainly
due to strong production
in Northern and Eastern
Victoria supported by
favourable weather
conditions, despite lower
production volumes
in Western Victoria
and Tasmania.
The 2023/24 season milk
collections for Australia were
finalised at 107.0 million
kgMS, 1.2% above
last season.
North Island milk
collections in June were
11. 9 million kgMS, 6.7%
above June last season.
The increase was mainly
due to favourable pasture
conditions across the region,
continuing on from the
strong finish from the end of
last season.
South Island milk
collections in June were
2.6 million kgMS, 29.2%
below June last season.
Although a large variance
in percentage terms,
June collections in the
South Island typically
represent less than 0.5% of
full season collections.
The decrease was mainly
due to unfavourable
weather conditions, with
dry, cold regions and low
sunlight hours affecting
pasture growth.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for June were
14.5 million kgMS, 2.1%
below June last season.
As is normal for this time of
the season, collections for
June represent less than 1%
of the full season forecast.
The decrease was mainly
due to unfavourable
weather conditions
impacting collections in
the South Island. This was
partially offset by favourable
pasture conditions leading
to a strong start for
North Island collections.
%%
%%
%
%%
%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
JUL SEP DEC APR
JUL
OCT MAY FEB
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity prices and New Zealand
dollar trend
A weaker outlook for growth paired with increased political
uncertainty in the US and the spectre of a renewed era of
protectionism led to increasingly loud calls for central banks,
including the US Federal Reserve, to reduce borrowing costs.
Investors began to pare back their exposure to risky assets,
such as equities, while safe-haven assets like government
bonds outperformed. Against this backdrop the NZD/USD
exchange rate declined to near 59 US cents.
Fonterra GDT results at
trading event 360
16 July 2024:
The next trading event will be held on 6 August 2024. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
1.6
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
3,911
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
21.1
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 3,134/MT
2.3
WMP
USD 4,217/MT
5.9
CHEDDAR
USD 6,555/MT
1.0
BUTTER
USD 6,764/MT
3.8
AMF
USD 2,590/MT
0.6
SMP
21,115
MT
LATEST AUCTION
588,234
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Our Performance
Fonterra confirms
transactional advisors
On Thursday 25 July, Fonterra
confirmed its transactional
advisors to support the
potential divestment process
for the Consumer and
integrated businesses in
Australia and Sri Lanka.
Mike Cronin, Managing
Director Co-operative Affairs
who is leading the team
working on the potential
divestment process, said:
"I can confirm that we have
this week appointed Jarden
alongside JP Morgan and
Craigs Investment Partners
to jointly work with us as
transactional advisors.
"They’ll support us through
the ongoing preparation
phase and act as the point of
contact for potential buyers
going forward.
"We’ve also recently
appointed legal advisors
and are close to appointing
additional advisors to
provide expert advice in
areas such as accounting,
to help us make the best
decisions for the Co-op
through this process,"
said Mike.
Planting hundreds
of natives with
Trees for Survival
Students from Vardon
Primary School in
Hamilton contributed to
environmental conservation
by planting over 500 native
trees on a dairy farm in
Morrinsville, thanks to a
collaboration between
Fonterra and Trees
for Survival.
In the previous spring, the
Co-op extended its support
to Vardon Primary and
other North Island schools,
aiding them in nurturing
native plant seedlings. This
initiative provided schools
with essential resources,
including a custom-built,
irrigated shade house.
Through Trees for Survival’s
environmental education
programme, students have
learned to cultivate and care
for native plants.
With the seedlings now
mature, the students
participated in planting
them along waterways and
hillsides on the dairy farm.
This effort aims to enhance
water quality, prevent
erosion, and create vital
habitats for local wildlife.
Despite the challenges
posed by recent rainfall, the
30 students engaged eagerly,
gaining insights into the
ecological and biodiversity
benefits of native plants.
Fonterra supplier
Vanessa Markwell
commented on the
experience: “We had a
fantastic day hosting the
students and witnessing
their enthusiasm. It was truly
rewarding to see the plants
they nurtured from seedlings
being planted. Participating
in the Trees for Survival
programme has been a
deeply fulfilling experience
for us, and we extend our
thanks to Trees for Survival,
Vardon Primary, and Fonterra
for this opportunity.”
Markwell added, “As Fonterra
suppliers, it is gratifying
to see the Co-operative
supporting initiatives like
Trees for Survival. We
appreciate everyone involved
for making this possible.”
In a similar effort last month,
29 students from Ngutunui
Enviro School in Pirongia
planted 725 native trees on
a farm owned by Fonterra
farmers. This planting was
strategically done near a
newly established eel pond
to provide shade and a
healthier habitat for tuna and
other wildlife.
Jane Shaw, a parent of one
of the students, praised the
initiative: “The support from
Fonterra during Ngutunui
Enviro School's inaugural
year with Trees for Survival
has been remarkable. The
planting day highlighted the
students' dedication and
showcased the collaboration
between various
stakeholders committed to
environmental change. The
hands-on experience in plant
growth, planting, and habitat
restoration, combined with
a positive attitude, made it a
memorable day.”
Since announcing its
partnership with Trees for
Survival in 2022, the Co-op
has facilitated the planting
of thousands of trees across
Aotearoa New Zealand.
Phil Lyons, National
Manager at Trees for
Survival, expressed gratitude
for Fonterra’s support:
“We deeply appreciate
Fonterra’s commitment. Our
shared goal is to make a
meaningful impact through
an innovative environmental
restoration and education
programme. Together, we are
inspiring communities and
children to create a lasting
legacy while learning about
conservation and enhancing
local biodiversity.”
Shaheen Junge, Fonterra’s
Community and Social
Impact Manager
underscored the importance
of the partnership: “Our
commitment is to effect
positive change for future
generations. Partnering
with Trees for Survival
empowers students to
actively participate in
community stewardship and
environmental action.”
Our Co-op
8
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to May; New Zealand and US to June.
NOTE: Data for EU, US and Australia to May; New Zealand to June.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa, Latin America to May; China to June.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
JUNE
2024
JUNE
2023
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2024/25
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2023/24
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
14.514.8(2.1%)14.514.8(2.1%)
North Island11. 911. 16.7%11. 911. 16.7%
South Island2.63.6(29.2%)2.63.6(29.2%)
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
JUNE
2024
JUNE
2023
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
2023/24
SEASON
2022/23
SEASON
CHANGE
Australia6.86.54.2%107.0105.81.2%
2023/24 season
forecast Farmgate
Milk Price (FGMP)
update
2024/25 season
forecast Farmgate
Milk Price (FGMP)
update
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
FGMP (NZD)
NZD/USD RATE AT
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
CONVERSION
RATE FOR
2023/24
SEASON
PERCENTAGE
OF FORECAST
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
FOR 2023/24
SEASON
HEDGED
PERCENTAGE
OF FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
OPTION
COVER
REMAINING
IN HEDGED
AMOUNT
RANGE MID-
POINT
29 May 2024$7.70-
$7.90
$7.800.61440.612699%12%
21 March 2024$7.50-
$8.10
$7.800.60820.612592%17%
As at the most recent update to the 2023/24 season forecast Farmgate Milk Price dated 29 May 2024:
• Fonterra had hedged approximately 99% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the
2023/24 season Farmgate Milk Price.
• Of that 99%, approximately 12% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet
expired or been exercised.
• If the remaining 1% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 29 May 2024 spot rate
of 0.6144, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2024 season would be 0.6126.
• Also shown for information are the equivalent measures at the date of the previous update to the
2023/24 season Forecast Farmgate Milk Price on 21 March 2024.
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
FGMP (NZD)
NZD/USD RATE AT
ANNOUNCEMENT
DATE
FORECAST
AVERAGE
CONVERSION
RATE FOR
2024/25
SEASON
PERCENTAGE
OF FORECAST
FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
EXPOSURE
FOR 2024/25
SEASON
HEDGED
PERCENTAGE
OF FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
OPTION
COVER
REMAINING
IN HEDGED
AMOUNT
RANGE MID-
POINT
29 May 2024$7.25-
$8.75
$8.000.61440.613049%11%
For the opening forecast Farmgate Milk Price for the 2024/25 season announced on 29 May 2024:
• Fonterra had hedged approximately 49% of the full year forecast USD cash flows related to the
2024/25 season Farmgate Milk Price.
• Of that 49%, approximately 11% was hedged with foreign exchange options which had not yet expired
or been exercised.
• If the remaining 51% of the forecast USD cash flows were to be hedged at the 29 May 2024 spot rate
of 0.6144, the average NZD/USD conversion rate for the 2024 season would be 0.6130.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN
OCT FEB
JUL
AUG MAY
SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
11
Supplementary Information
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(16 JULY 2024)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2023)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
21,115588,234
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
(11. 5%)(4.3%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
3,9113,421
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
17.2%(4.9%)
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
1.6%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
12
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products,
except for Reference
Products, produced
by the New Zealand
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update July 20242024-07-30
“• Fonterra confirms transactional advisors. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • Australia and EU monthly production increased. New Zealand and US monthly production decreased. • Australia monthly exports increased. New Zealand, EU and US monthly exports decreased. • Asia, Latin Am…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update September 20242024-09-29
“• Fonterra continues momentum in FY24, announces special dividend. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand and Australia monthly production increased. EU and US monthly production decreased. • Australia, EU and US monthly exports increased. New Zealand monthly exports dec…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update August 20242024-08-29
“• Fonterra’s climate targets get tick of approval by Science Based Target initiative. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, Australia and EU monthly production increased. US monthly production decreased. • New Zealand, Australia and US monthly exports increased. EU month…”