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Analysis of NZX 50 total returns during New Zealand general election years, including a comparison of returns under National and Labour governments. Based on publicly available index data.
Published 2 April 2026 · updated 21 September 2026 | 24 calendar years of data | 8 elections
The figures below run to the end of 2025. The S&P/NZX 50 is +1.5% year to date as at 17 September 2026. That is a part-year number: it is shown for context only and is deliberately excluded from every average on this page, because a partial year mixed into a series of full-year returns would pull those averages toward zero without saying so.
Based on available data, election years have historically returned less than non-election years. However, with only 8 election cycles, this sample is too small for statistical significance. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (-32.8%) heavily influences the election-year average.
| Year | Result | NZX 50 Return | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Labour (Clark) | -5.3% | Post-dotcom, 9/11 aftermath |
| 2005 | Labour (Clark) | +10.0% | Mid-cycle, stable economy |
| 2008 | National (Key) | -32.8% | Global Financial Crisis |
| 2011 | National (Key) | -1.0% | Christchurch earthquakes, EU debt crisis |
| 2014 | National (Key) | +17.6% | Post-GFC recovery |
| 2017 | Labour (Ardern) | +22.0% | Global growth, low interest rates |
| 2020 | Labour (Ardern) | +13.9% | COVID-19, V-shaped rebound |
| 2023 | National (Luxon) | +2.6% | Rate hiking cycle, inflation cooling |
NZX 50 total returns include reinvested dividends. Source: S&P/NZX index data.
The data below compares NZX 50 returns in the election year itself and in the year following an election, grouped by which party won. With only four elections per party, the sample is too small for meaningful statistical conclusions. Global macro conditions appear to be a far stronger driver than domestic politics.
| Winner | Elections | Avg Return | Years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 4 | +10.2% | 2002, 2005, 2017, 2020 |
| National | 4 | -3.4% | 2008, 2011, 2014, 2023 |
Labour election years have historically averaged higher returns. However, National's average is heavily influenced by the 2008 GFC (-32.8%), a global crisis unrelated to NZ domestic policy. Excluding 2008, National election years averaged approximately +6.4%.
| New Government | Avg Return | Years & Returns |
|---|---|---|
| National | +17.0% | 2009: +18.9%, 2012: +24.2%, 2015: +13.6%, 2024: +11.4% |
| Labour | +12.5% | 2003: +25.3%, 2006: +20.3%, 2018: +4.9%, 2021: -0.4% |
The year following a National win has historically averaged higher returns than the year following a Labour win. Again, global conditions (post-GFC recovery in 2009, post-dotcom recovery in 2003) appear to explain more than domestic policy changes.
The two tables above rest on 8 of the 24 years in this dataset — election years, and the single year after each. Attributing every year to whichever party held office uses 23 of them.
| Government | Years | Avg Return | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 11 | +12.5% | 2009–2017, 2024–2025 |
| Labour | 12 | +7.3% | 2003–2008, 2018–2023 |
Read this table with its convention in view. A government formed after a late-year election takes the following calendar year, so 2008 — the Global Financial Crisis, -32.8%, the largest single move in the series — falls in Labour's column, and the +18.9% recovery in 2009 falls in National's. That is an artefact of when New Zealand holds elections, not a measure of either party's economic management. The first two tables place 2008 differently, which is precisely why both framings are shown.
What is worth noting is that the ranking does not depend on the choice: on this data the NZX 50 averaged a higher return under National on both the election-year framing and the full-term framing. A result that survives the method is more informative than either number alone.
| Year | NZX 50 Return | Election |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | -5.3% | Labour |
| 2003 | +25.3% | |
| 2004 | +25.1% | |
| 2005 | +10.0% | Labour |
| 2006 | +20.3% | |
| 2007 | -0.3% | |
| 2008 | -32.8% | National |
| 2009 | +18.9% | |
| 2010 | +2.4% | |
| 2011 | -1.0% | National |
| 2012 | +24.2% | |
| 2013 | +16.5% | |
| 2014 | +17.6% | National |
| 2015 | +13.6% | |
| 2016 | +8.8% | |
| 2017 | +22.0% | Labour |
| 2018 | +4.9% | |
| 2019 | +30.4% | |
| 2020 | +13.9% | Labour |
| 2021 | -0.4% | |
| 2022 | -12.0% | |
| 2023 | +2.6% | National |
| 2024 | +11.4% | |
| 2025 | +3.3% |
Shaded rows indicate election years. NZX 50 total returns include reinvested dividends.
Several plausible but unproven theories may explain why election years have historically shown lower average returns:
Data sourced from S&P/NZX index data, Elections NZ. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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