Get NZX governance insights in your inbox

Weekly digest of board changes, insider trades, and market signals. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Insider Trading & Announcement Tone Correlation

Timing patterns between director share transactions and company announcement sentiment

This analysis identifies notable timing patterns where insider trades appear to correlate with announcement sentiment within a 30-day window. These patterns reflect publicly available data and do not imply any breach of securities law.

2,611

Correlated Trades

Within 30-day windows

32.0%

Trades Near Announcements

of 7,041 total trades

Buy Before Good

Most Common Pattern

1563 instances

Notable Timing Events

Highest notability score

Pattern Breakdown

Pattern	Count	% of Total	Avg Sentiment	Top Tickers
Buy Before Good News	1563	59.9%	+0.67	MEL (86), GNE (84), PLP (78)
Sell Before Bad News	116	4.4%	-0.62	SPK (11), TWL (8), SKO (7)
Buy After Bad News (Contrarian)	577	22.1%	-0.62	WBC (37), FBU (34), MEL (33)
Tone Shift + Trade	355	13.6%	+0.11

Top 20 Notable Timing Correlations

Ranked by notability score (|sentiment| x trade value). These patterns may have many explanations and do not suggest improper conduct.

Director	Ticker	Trade Date	Type	Value	Announcement	Sentiment	Days Gap	Pattern
Brendan Kevany	CEN	20 Oct 2025	Acquisition	$218.8M	October Operating Report 17 Nov 2025	+0.72	28d	Buy Before Good
David Paradice	ATM	13 Nov 2024	Acquisition	$191.4M	FY25 revenue guidance and dividend policy 21 Nov 2024

Company Correlation Heatmap — Top 20

Companies with the most timing correlations between insider trades and sentiment-scored announcements. Higher counts may simply reflect greater announcement volume or more active insider trading.

Company	Total	Buy Before Good	Sell Before Bad	Buy After Bad	Tone Shift
MELMeridian Energy Limited	123	86	1	33	3
GNEGenesis Energy Limited	104	84	2	5

Methodology & Limitations

How Patterns Are Identified

For each insider trade, we examine all sentiment-scored announcements from the same issuer within a 30-day window. Trades and announcements are classified into four pattern types based on trade direction, timing relative to the announcement, and the announcement's AI-assigned sentiment score.

Pattern Definitions

Buy Before Good News: A purchase within 30 days before a positive-sentiment announcement (score > 0.3)
Sell Before Bad News: A sale within 30 days before a negative-sentiment announcement (score < -0.3)
Buy After Bad News: A purchase within 30 days after a negative announcement — often interpreted as a contrarian signal or insider confidence
Tone Shift + Trade: Any insider trade within 30 days of an announcement with a hedging score above 7 (significant evasive language)

Important Limitations

• Sentiment scores are generated by AI and may not accurately reflect the true tone of an announcement
• 31,025 of 69,374 announcements have been sentiment-scored (45% coverage)
• Correlation does not imply causation. Directors may trade for personal financial reasons unrelated to upcoming announcements
• Many trades are part of pre-arranged trading plans or routine portfolio management
• Companies with more announcements and more active insider trading will naturally show more correlations

These patterns reflect publicly available data and do not imply any breach of securities law. Insider trading on the NZX is regulated by the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013. All director share transactions shown here are publicly disclosed as required by NZX Listing Rules. The presence of a timing correlation between a trade and an announcement is common and usually reflects legitimate activity.

Related Insights

Whale Tracker

Large shareholder movements across NZX companies.

Market Signals

Technical and fundamental signal alerts.

Earnings Calendar

Predicted HY/FY reporting dates for all NZX companies.

Data sourced from NZX director share transaction disclosures and AI-scored announcement sentiment. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. Past performance does not indicate future results. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.