Quarterly Operational Update
QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Three months ended 30 September 2021
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE01
HYDRO GENERATION DOWN WITH DRIER
WEATHER BUT TAUPO STORAGE LIFTS,
GEO IMPACTED BY KAWERAU OUTAGE
CUSTOMER NUMBERS MAINTAINED
AT 328,000 AS MERCURY
HOLDS MARKET SHARE
COMPLETED ACQUISITION OF
TILT RENEWABLES NZ WIND FARMS,
TURITEA COMMISSIONING UNDERWAY
>> QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
GENERATION
LOWER
CUSTOMER
NUMBERS
STEADY
WIND
ADDED
>> COMMENTARY
HYDRO GENERATION DOWN AS MERCURY REBUILDS TAUPO STORAGE; KAWERAU OUTAGE IMPACTS GEOTHERMAL
Hydro generation in FY2022-Q1 of 953GWh was below average as Waikato catchment inflows remained below average at the 34
th
percentile
1
. Despite this, Mercury lifted Lake Taupo hydro storage which ended the quarter at 403GWh, 45GWh above average
2
.
Geothermal generation in the quarter decreased by 80GWh, from 687GWh in FY2021-Q1 to 607GWh, due to a 44 day unplanned outage
at the Kawerau power station which ended on 20 July. The outage period coincided with higher prices which saw the LWAP/GWAP ratio
increase unfavourably from 1.01 in FY2021-Q1 to 1.04 in the most recent quarter. Cover was taken to offset this loss in production
resulting in the average price for Buy CfDs increasing from $128/MWh in FY2021-Q1 to $143/MWh in FY2022-Q1.
This quarter saw the completed acquisition of Tilt Renewables NZ wind farms on 3 August, reflected in 220GWh of wind generation
volume for the quarter. The Turitea wind farm produced 13GWh in the quarter while undergoing commissioning with revenue generated
offsetting project capex.
SPOT PRICES REMAIN HIGH BUT EASE OVER THE QUARTER; FUTURES REFLECT IMPROVED HYDRO STORAGE
Average spot prices in the quarter remained elevated at $149/MWh at Otahuhu and $123/MWh at Benmore versus $136/MWh and
$125/MWh respectively in FY2021-Q1. Prices trended down within the quarter as national hydro storage increased due to high South
Island hydro inflows (at the 99
th
percentile
1
), shown through the average July price of $191/MWh and $168/MWh at Otahuhu and
Benmore easing to $97/MWh and $77/MWh in September respectively.
Improved national hydro storage (74% of maximum at the end of the quarter) saw the FY2022 futures prices decrease from $170/MWh
and $151/MWh at Otahuhu and Benmore at the start of the quarter to $133/MWh and $110/MWh respectively by the end of the quarter.
CUSTOMER NUMBERS MAINTAINED AS MERCURY REDUCES LOSSES; C&I PRICING LIFTS ON RECONTRACTING
Customer numbers held steady at 328,000 over the quarter, ending a trend of declining market share, as Mercury reduced customer
losses through various initiatives including our 'Move with Mercury' campaign.
The Commercial & Industrial sales yield (including both physical and financial sales) increased by 11.7% from $96/MWh in FY2020-Q4 to
$107/MWh in FY2021-Q4 due to recent recontracting reflecting the higher wholesale pricing over the last year. Sales volumes in this
segment increased by 47GWh, from 801GWh in FY2021-Q1 to 848GWh in the most recent quarter, with an increase in physical sales
being partially offset by reduced CfD sales due to the early exit of a foundation hedge with the Norske Skog Tasman mill closure.
DEMAND DOWN DUE TO INDUSTRIAL CLOSURES AND REDUCED IRRIGATION LOAD
Temperature-adjusted demand decreased in FY2022-Q1 by 0.9% with reductions in the industrial (-0.8%), irrigation (-0.2%), and other
(-0.2%) sectors being offset by an increase in the urban (+0.3%) sector (the dairy and rural sectors were flat). Industrial demand
decreased due to the closure of the Norske Skog Tasman mill at the start of the quarter, partially offset by an increase in Marsden Point
refinery demand due to a six-week shutdown in the prior comparable period.
1
For quarters ended 30 September since 1927
2
For quarters ended 30 September since 1999
328342
291302
3740
4646
VWAP
1
VolumeVWAP
1
Volume
(GWh)(GWh)
1,3011,257
2
789832
3
512425
6261
4
1,3631,318
5
803843
336376
6
467467
7
3073
7
1,7801,731
9531,044
8
607687
220
453433
6
453433
7
9
1.041.01
1
VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to customers after lines, metering and fees
2
Mass market includes residential segments and non time-of-use commercial customers
3
Fixed-price, variable-volume (FPVV) sales to time-of-use commercial customers
4
Excludes spot customer purchases, assumes interim pricing on 9 August 2021 settles at ~$1,000/MWh
5
Excludes FTR and trading ASX positions (including positions held to maturity which were previously disclosed in CfD volumes)
6
7
Assumes interim pricing on 9 August 2021 settles at ~$1,000/MWh
8
9
Includes all physical and financial buys and sells except spot customer purchases, excludes Wind PPA volumes
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE02
66.00
Financial137.11
PORTFOLIO LWAP/GWAP
Wind PPA
Geothermal (consolidated)
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Physical
127.85143.44 Spot Settlement of CfDs
120.17126.95
137.1197.48 Buy CfDs
157.18144.14
137.31142.78
Hydro
Spot Customer Purchases
87.57
151.42141.79
96.0187.52
130.63144.65
89.39
Other Sell CfDs
149.58146.06
Physical Purchases
Financial
Spot Settlement of CfDs
End User CfDs87.45
100.77
140.33
OPERATING INFORMATION
Three months ended
30 September 2021
Three months ended
30 September 2020
($/MWh)
Dual Fuel Customers
($/MWh)
South Island Customers
Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes of 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 September 2021 and 151 GWh for the 3 months ended 30 September 2020
ELECTRICITY CUSTOMERS
('000s ICPs)
ELECTRICITY SALES
North Island Customers
Commercial & Industrial
Network Losses
103.19
137.30
118.55
Physical132.84125.76
Mass Market
97.48
>> OPERATING STATISTICS
> ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER
Mercury electricity generation share includes Tilt Renewables NZ wind generation from 3 August 2021
Source: Electricity Authority
> SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER (EXCLUDING CFDs)
Source: Mercury Purchases and Transpower SCADA
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE03
17%
32%
22%
18%
4%
7%
Financial Year Q1 2022
MERCURY
MERIDIAN ENERGY
CONTACT ENERGY
GENESIS ENERGY
TRUSTPOWER / TILT
OTHER
>> MARKET DATA
17%
30%
24%
16%
5%
8%
Financial Year Q1 2021
13%
87%
Financial Year Q1 2022
MERCURY
OTHER
13%
87%
Financial Year Q1 2021
> OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS
Source: NZX Hydro and NZEM Pricing Manager (NZX)
> TAUPO STORAGE
Source: NZX Hydro
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE04
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
$/MWh
GWh
AVERAGE NATIONAL STORAGEFY2021 NATIONAL STORAGE
FY2022 NATIONAL STORAGEROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE OTA PRICE
ROLLING 12 MONTH AVERAGE BEN PRICE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun
GWh
AVERAGE SINCE 1999FY2021FY2022
> OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
> BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ASX
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE05
$100.14
$93.46
$92.03
$193.18
$143.18
$130.76
$170.44
$144.05
$129.70
$133.34
$141.63
$125.93
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
FY22FY23FY24
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020AS AT 31 MARCH 2021AS AT 30 JUNE 2021AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
$85.19
$78.14
$76.98
$177.01
$125.69
$113.48
$151.34
$124.13
$111.71
$109.88
$118.04
$104.54
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
FY22FY23FY24
$/MWh
Financial Year
AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2020AS AT 31 MARCH 2021AS AT 30 JUNE 2021AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2021
> NATIONAL CONSUMPTION (NON-TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED)
Source: Transpower Information Exchange
> AUCKLAND CLIMATE SUMMARY ( ⁰C)
FINANCIAL YEAR
Q1Q2Q3Q4
202212.2---
202112.316.919.514.8
202012.316.719.514.4
201912.116.320.214.1
201812.317.220.714.3
Historical Average (since 1999)11.916.119.414.2
Source: Met Service
> MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPs)
Source: Electricity Authority
MERCURY NZ LIMITED QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE06
9,430
9,451
9,554
9,553
9,568
9,489
1,267
1,251
1,263
1,316
1,240
1,257
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q1 2017Q1 2018Q1 2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022
GWh
NATIONAL CONSUMPTIONTIWAI POINT ALUMINIUM SMELTER CONSUMPTION
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20Jan-21
Jul-21
% Churn
Monthly ICPs
NZ MARKET CHURN (LHS)ANNUAL NZ MARKET CHURN % (RHS)
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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