Historical validation of the NZXplorer 9-factor earnings surprise prediction model (v2, calibrated from this backtest). Each prediction uses only data available before the earnings announcement.
25%
182/716 correct
13%
1/8 (prob ≥70% or ≤30%)
354
49% of events
309
53 inline
Companies that beat expectations 70%+ of the time — likely setting conservative guidance.
Companies that miss expectations 70%+ of the time — management credibility concern.
Accuracy of individual signals when they deviate from neutral (50). Higher = more predictive.
31%
393 events with signal • Insider buy/sell direction vs management tone
26%
554 events with signal • Management tone stability across periods
34%
132 events with signal • Historical guidance accuracy
| Year | Events | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43 | 11 | 26% |
| 2025 | 162 | 37 | 23% |
| 2024 | 160 | 51 | 32% |
| 2023 | 119 | 31 | 26% |
Unified analyst consensus — target prices, guidance accuracy, earnings expectations across the NZX.
9-factor beat/miss probability model — guidance, tone, historical patterns, analyst consensus.
Predicted HY/FY reporting dates for all NZX companies based on historical patterns.
Data sourced from NZX earnings results, insider trades, management tone, analyst consensus. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. Scores are calculated using disclosed methodology and are analytical tools, not investment ratings or recommendations. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
When insider trades contradict management tone, insiders were right only 41% of the time (90/220 events). NZ insiders appear to trade for liquidity and tax reasons, not information advantage. The model should reduce insider signal weight from 15% to 5-10%.
| 2022 | 115 | 22 | 19% |
| 2021 | 99 | 28 | 28% |
| 2020 | 18 | 2 | 11% |
