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9-factor beat/miss probability model — guidance accuracy, tone, historical patterns, analyst consensus (calibrated from 716-event backtest)
Directional accuracy: 53% upside / 45% downside (above random). This is a directional signal, not a guaranteed prediction. Enhanced with 780 analyst consensus snapshots.
Key finding: Serial patterns matter more than the model itself — PaySauce, BLIS, Seeka beat 100% of the time (sandbagging guidance). Ryman, KMD, Air NZ miss 70%+ (chronic over-promisers). Insider trades are NOT predictive in NZ (41% when contradicting tone).
View full backtest methodology & results →| Sector | Companies | Avg Surprise % | High Risk | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples | 14 | 62% | 13 | |
| Financials | 20 | 61% | 16 | |
| Energy | 1 | 61% | 1 | |
| Information Technology | 8 | 60% | 6 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | 15 |
Sorted by surprise probability (highest risk first). Based on 9-factor predictability model (calibrated from 716-event backtest).
The Earnings Surprise Predictor uses a 9-factor weighted model (calibrated from 716 historical events) to estimate the probability that a company's next earnings result will differ significantly from market expectations.
See also: Model Backtest — historical validation: 716 events, directional accuracy 53% upside / 45% downside. · Consensus Estimates — unified analyst consensus combining broker ratings, guidance accuracy, and earnings expectations. · Broker Coverage — analyst ratings and price targets.
Continue your analysis with these related reports
Predicted HY/FY reporting dates for all NZX companies based on historical reporting patterns — plan ahead for earnings season
AI-extracted themes from NZX earnings announcements — trending topics, management tone, and forward-looking statements by sector and quarter
Financial health analysis for NZX companies using Beneish M-score (earnings manipulation), Piotroski F-score (financial strength), Altman Z-score (bankruptcy risk), interest coverage, and current ratio
DCF, DDM, and EV/EBITDA composite valuations for all NZX companies
AI-extracted themes from NZX earnings announcements — trending topics, management tone, and forward-looking statements by sector and quarter
Financial health analysis for NZX companies using Beneish M-score (earnings manipulation), Piotroski F-score (financial strength), Altman Z-score (bankruptcy risk), interest coverage, and current ratio
Data sourced from NZX earnings results, analyst consensus, and insider trading data. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
| 60% |
| 10 |
| Industrials | 23 | 59% | 16 |
| Materials | 4 | 57% | 2 |
| Real Estate | 14 | 56% | 7 |
| Communication Services | 4 | 56% | 3 |
| Healthcare | 12 | 55% | 7 |
| Utilities | 7 | 52% | 3 |
| Downside |
| Very High |
| Tone Consistency: 0% |
| optimistic |
| NTL | New Talisman Gold Mines Ltd | Industrials | 74% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| AFC | AFC Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 72% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 6% | defensive |
| BRM | Barramundi Limited | Financials | 72% | Upside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| ENS | Enprise Group Limited | Information Technology | 72% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| WCO | WasteCo Group Limited | Industrials | 72% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| CVT | Comvita Limited | Industrials | 71% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| KFL | Kingfish Limited | Financials | 71% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| BRW | Bremworth Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 70% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| MHJ | Michael Hill International Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 70% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| MLN | Marlin Global Limited | Financials | 70% | Upside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| OCA | Oceania Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 70% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| RBD | Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 70% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 2% | cautious |
| BAI | Being AI | Healthcare | 69% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | defensive |
| CMO | The Colonial Motor Company Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 69% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| MCK | Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 69% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| WHS | The Warehouse Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 69% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| APL | Asset Plus | Real Estate | 68% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 4% | neutral |
| FCG | Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited | Consumer Staples | 68% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| FCT | F&C INVESTMENT TRUST PLC | Financials | 68% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | neutral |
| STU | Steel & Tube Holdings Limited | Materials | 68% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 2% | cautious |
| AFI | Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited | Financials | 67% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| FWL | Foley Wines Limited | Consumer Staples | 67% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| MEE | Me Today Limited | Consumer Staples | 67% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| MOV | MOVE Logistics Group Limited | Industrials | 67% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| RTO | RTO Limited | Information Technology | 67% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 9% | neutral |
| SML | Synlait Milk Limited | Consumer Staples | 67% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| TEM | Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC | Financials | 67% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| TGG | T&G Global Limited | Consumer Staples | 67% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | optimistic |
| CCC | Cooks Coffee Company Limited | Consumer Staples | 66% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| MPG | Metro Performance Glass | Real Estate | 66% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| SCT | Scott Technology Limited | Industrials | 66% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 10% | mixed |
| SEK | Seeka Limited | Consumer Staples | 66% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| TRU | TRUSCREEN GROUP LIMITED | Industrials | 66% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 11% | mixed |
| HFL | Henderson Far East Income Limited | Financials | 65% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 14% | cautious |
| SKO | Serko Limited | Industrials | 65% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | optimistic |
| BGP | Briscoe Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 64% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 7% | cautious |
| CDI | CDL Investments New Zealand Limited | Real Estate | 64% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | neutral |
| IPR | Iperion Limited | Real Estate | 64% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| AIR | Air New Zealand | Industrials | 63% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| BLT | BLIS Technologies Limited | Consumer Staples | 63% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | cautious |
| GEN | General Capital Limited | Financials | 63% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| NPH | Napier Port Holdings Limited | Industrials | 63% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| AFT | AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited | Healthcare | 62% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| GTK | Gentrack Group Limited | Information Technology | 62% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| IPL | Investore Property Limited | Real Estate | 62% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 11% | optimistic |
| NZK | New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited | Consumer Staples | 62% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| NZL | New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited | Real Estate | 62% | Downside | High | Guidance Track Record: 15% | optimistic |
| SDL | Solution Dynamics Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 62% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 9% | cautious |
| 2CC | 2 Cheap Cars Group Limited | Financials | 61% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| AGL | Accordant Group Limited | Utilities | 61% | Upside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| AOF | AoFrio Limited | Financials | 61% | Upside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| CHI | Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited | Energy | 61% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | optimistic |
| MCY | Mercury NZ Limited | Utilities | 61% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| ALF | Allied Farmers Limited | Financials | 60% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 15% | cautious |
| BIT | The Bankers Investment Trust PLC | Financials | 60% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 3% | cautious |
| GXH | Green Cross Health Limited | Healthcare | 60% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 8% | mixed |
| SPK | Spark New Zealand Limited | Communication Services | 60% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 1% | defensive |
| CNU | Chorus Limited | Communication Services | 59% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| PHL | Promisia Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 59% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| CRP | Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited | Industrials | 58% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| FBU | Fletcher Building | Materials | 58% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 2% | defensive |
| KMD | KMD Brands Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 58% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| LOC | Locate Technologies Limited | Information Technology | 58% | Downside | High | Guidance Transparency: 20% | defensive |
| NZM | NZME Limited | Communication Services | 58% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| TRA | Turners Automotive Group | Consumer Discretionary | 58% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| ARB | ArborGen Holdings Limited | Industrials | 57% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 12% | cautious |
| FSF | Fonterra Shareholders' Fund | Consumer Staples | 57% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| NZX | NZX Limited | Financials | 57% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 35% | neutral |
| RUA | Rua Bioscience Limited | Healthcare | 57% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SCL | Scales Corporation Limited | Industrials | 57% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 5% | optimistic |
| SPG | Stride Property Limited | Real Estate | 57% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| WBC | Westpac Banking Corporation | Financials | 57% | Uncertain | High | Capital Stress: 20% | - |
| MEL | Meridian Energy Limited | Utilities | 56% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| RYM | Ryman Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 56% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| VGL | Vista Group International Limited | Information Technology | 56% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| AIA | Auckland International Airport Limited | Industrials | 55% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| ANZ | ANZ Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 55% | Uncertain | High | Guidance Transparency: 20% | - |
| ATM | The a2 Milk Company Limited | Consumer Staples | 55% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | neutral |
| DGL | Delegat Group Limited | Consumer Staples | 55% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| DOW | Downer EDI Limited | Industrials | 55% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 10% | neutral |
| PGW | PGG Wrightson Limited | Industrials | 55% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| SAN | Sanford Limited | Consumer Staples | 55% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | mixed |
| BFG | Burger Fuel Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 54% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| ERD | EROAD | Industrials | 54% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 14% | mixed |
| MFB | My Food Bag Group Limited | Financials | 54% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| PEB | Pacific Edge Limited | Healthcare | 54% | Upside | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| WIN | Winton Land Limited | Real Estate | 54% | Uncertain | Moderate | Forward-Looking Density: 35% | mixed |
| HLG | Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 53% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| IKE | ikeGPS Group Limited | Materials | 53% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| LIC | Livestock Improvement Corporation Limited | Financials | 53% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 10% | optimistic |
| FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited | Healthcare | 52% | Downside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| GNE | Genesis Energy Limited | Utilities | 52% | Downside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 13% | optimistic |
| PFI | Property for Industry Limited | Real Estate | 52% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 11% | optimistic |
| MFT | Mainfreight Limited | Industrials | 51% | Upside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 9% | cautious |
| SUM | Summerset Group Holdings Limited | Healthcare | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 3% | optimistic |
| VNT | Ventia Services Group Limited | Industrials | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| PCT | Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited | Real Estate | 50% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 13% | optimistic |
| VSL | Vulcan Steel Limited | Materials | 50% | Downside | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| SKL | Skellerup Holdings Limited | Industrials | 49% | Downside | Moderate | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |
| THL | Tourism Holdings Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 49% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | mixed |
| CEN | Contact Energy Limited | Utilities | 48% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 13% | optimistic |
| SKT | Sky Network Television Limited | Communication Services | 48% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| TWR | Tower Limited | Financials | 48% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 35% | cautious |
| KPG | Kiwi Property | Real Estate | 47% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SVR | Savor Limited | Consumer Staples | 47% | Downside | Moderate | Historical Pattern: 30% | cautious |
| PYS | PaySauce Limited | Information Technology | 46% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| TWL | TradeWindow Holdings Limited | Industrials | 46% | Downside | Moderate | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |
| VCT | Vector Limited | Utilities | 46% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | neutral |
| FRW | Freightways Group Limited | Industrials | 45% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 34% | optimistic |
| RAD | Radius Residential Care Limited | Healthcare | 45% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| VHP | Vital Healthcare Property Trust | Real Estate | 45% | Uncertain | Moderate | Historical Pattern: 30% | - |
| ARG | Argosy Property Limited | Real Estate | 44% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautiously optimistic |
| GNZ | Goodman NZ | Real Estate | 44% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| BPG | Black Pearl Group Limited | Information Technology | 43% | Uncertain | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | optimistic |
| IFT | Infratil Limited | Utilities | 43% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SKC | SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 43% | Uncertain | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | - |
| POT | Port of Tauranga Limited | Industrials | 42% | Uncertain | Moderate | Guidance Transparency: 40% | - |
| HGH | Heartland Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 39% | Inline | Low | Tone Consistency: 27% | optimistic |
| TAH | Third Age Health Services Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 39% | Inline | Low | Earnings Volatility: 35% | optimistic |
| EBO | EBOS Group Limited | Healthcare | 28% | Inline | Low | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |