Multi-factor beat/miss probability model — guidance accuracy, tone, insider alignment, analyst consensus
| Sector | Companies | Avg Surprise % | High Risk | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 7 | 58% | 4 | |
| Information Technology | 6 | 57% | 4 | |
| Consumer Staples | 13 | 57% | 10 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | 14 | 57% | 12 | |
| Industrials | 21 | 56% | 12 | |
| Financials | 19 | 55% | 12 | |
| Healthcare | 12 | 54% | 4 | |
| Energy | 1 | 52% | 0 | |
| Real Estate | 14 | 51% | 4 | |
| Communication Services | 3 | 50% | 1 | |
| Materials | 5 | 47% | 2 |
Sorted by surprise probability (highest risk first). Based on 8-factor predictability model.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Surprise % | Direction | Risk Level | Top Factor | Tone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCY | Mercury NZ Limited | Utilities | 78% | Uncertain | Very High | Guidance Track Record: 0% | mixed |
| RAK | Rakon Limited | Information Technology | 69% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautiously optimistic |
| SPN | South Port New Zealand Limited | Industrials | 69% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| AIR | Air New Zealand | Industrials | 67% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| NTL | New Talisman Gold Mines Ltd | Industrials | 66% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| FWL | Foley Wines Limited | Consumer Staples | 65% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| KFL | Kingfish Limited | Financials | 65% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| WCO | WasteCo Group Limited | Industrials | 65% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| AFC | AFC Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 64% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | defensive |
| ENS | Enprise Group Limited | Information Technology | 64% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| MEE | Me Today Limited | Consumer Staples | 64% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| CMO | The Colonial Motor Company Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 63% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| MCK | Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 63% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| MEL | Meridian Energy Limited | Utilities | 63% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 2% | cautious |
| MHJ | Michael Hill International Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 63% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| MLN | Marlin Global Limited | Financials | 63% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| OCA | Oceania Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 63% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| RTO | RTO Limited | Information Technology | 63% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 9% | neutral |
| APL | Asset Plus | Real Estate | 62% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 4% | neutral |
| BLT | BLIS Technologies Limited | Consumer Staples | 62% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | mixed |
| BRM | Barramundi Limited | Financials | 62% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| BRW | Bremworth Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 62% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| FCT | F&C INVESTMENT TRUST PLC | Financials | 62% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | neutral |
| HFL | Henderson Far East Income Limited | Financials | 62% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 4% | optimistic |
| KMD | KMD Brands Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 62% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| AGL | Accordant Group Limited | Utilities | 61% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 13% | defensive |
| CDI | CDL Investments New Zealand Limited | Real Estate | 61% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited | Healthcare | 61% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 11% | optimistic |
| RBD | Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 61% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 2% | cautious |
| BAI | Being AI | Healthcare | 60% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | defensive |
| BGP | Briscoe Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 60% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 7% | cautious |
| CCC | Cooks Coffee Company Limited | Consumer Staples | 60% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| CVT | Comvita Limited | Industrials | 60% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| NZK | New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited | Consumer Staples | 60% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| SEK | Seeka Limited | Consumer Staples | 60% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| SPK | Spark New Zealand Limited | Communication Services | 60% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| AFI | Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited | Financials | 59% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| FRW | Freightways Group Limited | Industrials | 59% | Downside | High | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |
| GTK | Gentrack Group Limited | Information Technology | 59% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| RYM | Ryman Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 59% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| TEM | Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC | Financials | 59% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| WHS | The Warehouse Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 59% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| AIA | Auckland International Airport Limited | Industrials | 58% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| FBU | Fletcher Building | Materials | 58% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 2% | defensive |
| FCG | Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited | Consumer Staples | 58% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| IPR | Iperion Limited | Real Estate | 58% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 8% | cautious |
| SML | Synlait Milk Limited | Consumer Staples | 58% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| STU | Steel & Tube Holdings Limited | Materials | 58% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 2% | cautious |
| GNE | Genesis Energy Limited | Utilities | 57% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| NPH | Napier Port Holdings Limited | Industrials | 57% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SCT | Scott Technology Limited | Industrials | 57% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 10% | mixed |
| 2CC | 2 Cheap Cars Group Limited | Financials | 56% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| BIT | The Bankers Investment Trust PLC | Financials | 56% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 3% | cautious |
| FSF | Fonterra Shareholders' Fund | Consumer Staples | 56% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| HLG | Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 56% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| MFT | Mainfreight Limited | Industrials | 56% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 9% | cautious |
| MPG | Metro Performance Glass | Real Estate | 56% | Upside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| TGG | T&G Global Limited | Consumer Staples | 56% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | optimistic |
| THL | Tourism Holdings Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 56% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | mixed |
| TRA | Turners Automotive Group | Consumer Discretionary | 56% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| AOF | AoFrio Limited | Financials | 55% | Upside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| GEN | General Capital Limited | Financials | 55% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| MOV | MOVE Logistics Group Limited | Industrials | 55% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SDL | Solution Dynamics Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 55% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| TRU | TRUSCREEN GROUP LIMITED | Industrials | 55% | Upside | High | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| ALF | Allied Farmers Limited | Financials | 54% | Upside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 15% | cautious |
| ARB | ArborGen Holdings Limited | Industrials | 54% | Upside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 12% | cautious |
| PHL | Promisia Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 54% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SKO | Serko Limited | Industrials | 54% | Downside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 6% | optimistic |
| SUM | Summerset Group Holdings Limited | Healthcare | 54% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 3% | optimistic |
| VCT | Vector Limited | Utilities | 54% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 10% | neutral |
| ARG | Argosy Property Limited | Real Estate | 53% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautiously optimistic |
| RAD | Radius Residential Care Limited | Healthcare | 53% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| AFT | AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited | Healthcare | 52% | Downside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| CHI | Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited | Energy | 52% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| GXH | Green Cross Health Limited | Healthcare | 52% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 28% | mixed |
| IPL | Investore Property Limited | Real Estate | 52% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 11% | optimistic |
| WBC | Westpac Banking Corporation | Financials | 52% | Uncertain | Moderate | Guidance Transparency: 20% | - |
| CEN | Contact Energy Limited | Utilities | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 13% | optimistic |
| DOW | Downer EDI Limited | Industrials | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 10% | neutral |
| ERD | EROAD | Industrials | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 14% | mixed |
| PFI | Property for Industry Limited | Real Estate | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 11% | optimistic |
| SCL | Scales Corporation Limited | Industrials | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 5% | optimistic |
| TWL | TradeWindow Holdings Limited | Industrials | 51% | Downside | Moderate | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |
| ANZ | ANZ Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 50% | Uncertain | Moderate | Guidance Transparency: 20% | - |
| BFG | Burger Fuel Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 50% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| KPG | Kiwi Property | Real Estate | 50% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| PCT | Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited | Real Estate | 49% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| PEB | Pacific Edge Limited | Healthcare | 49% | Downside | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| SPG | Stride Property Limited | Real Estate | 49% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| CRP | Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited | Industrials | 48% | Downside | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| GMT | Goodman Property Trust | Real Estate | 47% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| RUA | Rua Bioscience Limited | Healthcare | 47% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SAN | Sanford Limited | Consumer Staples | 47% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | mixed |
| SKL | Skellerup | Materials | 47% | Downside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 3% | optimistic |
| DGL | Delegat Group Limited | Consumer Staples | 46% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| MFB | My Food Bag Group Limited | Financials | 46% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| NZL | New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited | Real Estate | 46% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| VGL | Vista Group International Limited | Information Technology | 46% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| NZM | NZME Limited | Communication Services | 45% | Uncertain | Moderate | Guidance Transparency: 20% | optimistic |
| SKT | Sky Network Television Limited | Communication Services | 45% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| WIN | Winton Land Limited | Real Estate | 45% | Uncertain | Moderate | Forward-Looking Density: 35% | mixed |
| HGH | Heartland Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 44% | Downside | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | optimistic |
| PGW | PGG Wrightson Limited | Industrials | 44% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| VNT | Ventia Services Group Limited | Industrials | 44% | Uncertain | Moderate | Forward-Looking Density: 35% | optimistic |
| LIC | Livestock Improvement Corporation Limited | Financials | 43% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 10% | optimistic |
| NZX | NZX Limited | Financials | 43% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 35% | neutral |
| SVR | Savor Limited | Consumer Staples | 43% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 35% | cautious |
| IFT | Infratil Limited | Utilities | 42% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| EBO | EBOS Group Limited | Healthcare | 40% | Downside | Moderate | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |
| PYS | PaySauce Limited | Information Technology | 38% | Inline | Low | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| BPG | Black Pearl Group Limited | Real Estate | 37% | Inline | Low | Capital Stress: 20% | optimistic |
| VSL | Vulcan Steel Limited | Materials | 37% | Inline | Low | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| TAH | Third Age Health Services Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 35% | Inline | Low | Earnings Volatility: 35% | optimistic |
| IKE | ikeGPS Group Limited | Materials | 33% | Inline | Low | Capital Stress: 20% | optimistic |
The Earnings Surprise Predictor uses an 8-factor weighted model to estimate the probability that a company's next earnings result will differ significantly from market expectations.
See also: Consensus Estimates — unified analyst consensus combining broker ratings, guidance accuracy, and earnings expectations. · Broker Coverage — analyst ratings and price targets.
Unified analyst consensus — target prices, guidance accuracy, earnings expectations across the NZX.
Predicted HY/FY reporting dates for all NZX companies based on historical patterns.
RBNZ OCR decisions, GDP, CPI, and employment releases with expected vs actual.
Data sourced from NZX earnings results, analyst consensus, and insider trading data. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
