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9-factor beat/miss probability model — guidance accuracy, tone, historical patterns, analyst consensus (calibrated from 716-event backtest)
Directional accuracy: 53% upside / 45% downside (above random). This is a directional signal, not a guaranteed prediction.
Key finding: Serial patterns matter more than the model itself — PaySauce, BLIS, Seeka beat 100% of the time (sandbagging guidance). Ryman, KMD, Air NZ miss 70%+ (chronic over-promisers). Insider trades are NOT predictive in NZ (41% when contradicting tone).
View full backtest methodology & results →| Sector | Companies | Avg Surprise % | High Risk | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | 19 | 63% | 16 | |
| Consumer Discretionary | 15 | 63% | 13 | |
| Utilities | 7 | 63% | 7 | |
| Consumer Staples | 14 | 63% | 12 | |
| Energy | 1 |
Sorted by surprise probability (highest risk first). Based on 9-factor predictability model (calibrated from 716-event backtest).
The Earnings Surprise Predictor uses a 9-factor weighted model (calibrated from 716 historical events) to estimate the probability that a company's next earnings result will differ significantly from market expectations.
See also: Model Backtest — historical validation: 716 events, directional accuracy 53% upside / 45% downside. · Consensus Estimates — unified analyst consensus combining broker ratings, guidance accuracy, and earnings expectations. · Broker Coverage — analyst ratings and price targets.
Continue your analysis with these related reports
Predicted HY/FY reporting dates for all NZX companies based on historical reporting patterns — plan ahead for earnings season
AI-extracted themes from NZX earnings announcements — trending topics, management tone, and forward-looking statements by sector and quarter
DCF, DDM, and EV/EBITDA composite valuations for all NZX companies
AI-extracted themes from NZX earnings announcements — trending topics, management tone, and forward-looking statements by sector and quarter
Financial health analysis for NZX companies using Beneish M-score (earnings manipulation), Piotroski F-score (financial strength), Altman Z-score (bankruptcy risk), interest coverage, and current ratio
Data sourced from NZX earnings results, analyst consensus, and insider trading data. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
| 62% |
| 1 |
| Industrials | 23 | 61% | 15 |
| Communication Services | 4 | 61% | 3 |
| Real Estate | 13 | 60% | 12 |
| Information Technology | 7 | 59% | 4 |
| Healthcare | 12 | 59% | 10 |
| Materials | 4 | 59% | 2 |
| Industrials |
76% |
| Downside |
| Very High |
| Tone Consistency: 0% |
| defensive |
| RAK | Rakon Limited | Information Technology | 75% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautiously optimistic |
| NTL | New Talisman Gold Mines Ltd | Industrials | 74% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| WCO | WasteCo Group Limited | Industrials | 73% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| BRM | Barramundi Limited | Financials | 72% | Upside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| MLN | Marlin Global Limited | Financials | 72% | Upside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| AFC | AFC Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 71% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 6% | defensive |
| KFL | Kingfish Limited | Financials | 71% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| MCK | Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 71% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| APL | Asset Plus | Real Estate | 70% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 4% | neutral |
| BAI | Being AI | Healthcare | 70% | Upside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 6% | defensive |
| ENS | Enprise Group Limited | Information Technology | 70% | Uncertain | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| KMD | KMD Brands Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 70% | Upside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| RBD | Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 70% | Downside | Very High | Tone Consistency: 2% | cautious |
| CMO | The Colonial Motor Company Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 69% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| CVT | Comvita Limited | Industrials | 69% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| MCY | Mercury NZ Limited | Utilities | 69% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| MEE | Me Today Limited | Consumer Staples | 69% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| OCA | Oceania Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 69% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| SML | Synlait Milk Limited | Consumer Staples | 69% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| SPK | Spark New Zealand Limited | Communication Services | 69% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| TGG | T&G Global Limited | Consumer Staples | 69% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | optimistic |
| AIA | Auckland International Airport Limited | Industrials | 68% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| FCG | Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited | Consumer Staples | 68% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| FCT | F&C INVESTMENT TRUST PLC | Financials | 68% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | neutral |
| HFL | Henderson Far East Income Limited | Financials | 68% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 14% | cautious |
| MHJ | Michael Hill International Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 68% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| STU | Steel & Tube Holdings Limited | Materials | 68% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 2% | cautious |
| MEL | Meridian Energy Limited | Utilities | 67% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| TEM | Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC | Financials | 67% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| WHS | The Warehouse Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 67% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| AFI | Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited | Financials | 66% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 4% | defensive |
| BLT | BLIS Technologies Limited | Consumer Staples | 66% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | mixed |
| CCC | Cooks Coffee Company Limited | Consumer Staples | 66% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| FBU | Fletcher Building | Materials | 66% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 2% | defensive |
| FWL | Foley Wines Limited | Consumer Staples | 66% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | cautious |
| GNE | Genesis Energy Limited | Utilities | 66% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| RTO | RTO Limited | Information Technology | 66% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 9% | neutral |
| RYM | Ryman Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 66% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| SEK | Seeka Limited | Consumer Staples | 66% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| BRW | Bremworth Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 65% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| MOV | MOVE Logistics Group Limited | Industrials | 65% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| MPG | Metro Performance Glass | Real Estate | 65% | Upside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| SKO | Serko Limited | Industrials | 65% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 6% | optimistic |
| AGL | Accordant Group Limited | Utilities | 64% | Upside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| AOF | AoFrio Limited | Financials | 64% | Upside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| BGP | Briscoe Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 64% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 7% | cautious |
| CDI | CDL Investments New Zealand Limited | Real Estate | 64% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | neutral |
| FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited | Healthcare | 64% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| FSF | Fonterra Shareholders' Fund | Consumer Staples | 64% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| GTK | Gentrack Group Limited | Information Technology | 64% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| HLG | Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 64% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| IPR | Iperion Limited | Real Estate | 64% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 8% | cautious |
| NZK | New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited | Consumer Staples | 64% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | mixed |
| SCT | Scott Technology Limited | Industrials | 64% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 10% | mixed |
| SUM | Summerset Group Holdings Limited | Healthcare | 64% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 3% | optimistic |
| THL | Tourism Holdings Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 64% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | mixed |
| 2CC | 2 Cheap Cars Group Limited | Financials | 63% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | defensive |
| TRU | TRUSCREEN GROUP LIMITED | Industrials | 63% | Upside | High | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| ALF | Allied Farmers Limited | Financials | 62% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 15% | cautious |
| BIT | The Bankers Investment Trust PLC | Financials | 62% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 3% | cautious |
| CHI | Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited | Energy | 62% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| CNU | Chorus Limited | Communication Services | 62% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| FRW | Freightways Group Limited | Industrials | 62% | Downside | High | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |
| GEN | General Capital Limited | Financials | 62% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| IPL | Investore Property Limited | Real Estate | 62% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 11% | optimistic |
| NZL | New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited | Real Estate | 62% | Downside | High | Guidance Track Record: 15% | optimistic |
| AFT | AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited | Healthcare | 61% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| NPH | Napier Port Holdings Limited | Industrials | 61% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| GXH | Green Cross Health Limited | Healthcare | 60% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 8% | mixed |
| MFT | Mainfreight Limited | Industrials | 60% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 19% | cautious |
| PHL | Promisia Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | 60% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SDL | Solution Dynamics Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 60% | Upside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautious |
| CEN | Contact Energy Limited | Utilities | 59% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 13% | optimistic |
| PCT | Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited | Real Estate | 59% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| ARB | ArborGen Holdings Limited | Industrials | 58% | Upside | High | Tone Consistency: 12% | cautious |
| NZM | NZME Limited | Communication Services | 58% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SKC | SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 58% | Uncertain | High | Guidance Transparency: 20% | - |
| TRA | Turners Automotive Group | Consumer Discretionary | 58% | Downside | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| WBC | Westpac Banking Corporation | Financials | 58% | Uncertain | High | Guidance Transparency: 20% | - |
| ARG | Argosy Property Limited | Real Estate | 57% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | cautiously optimistic |
| ATM | The a2 Milk Company Limited | Consumer Staples | 57% | Uncertain | High | Guidance Transparency: 20% | neutral |
| NZX | NZX Limited | Financials | 57% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 35% | neutral |
| PFI | Property for Industry Limited | Real Estate | 57% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| RUA | Rua Bioscience Limited | Healthcare | 57% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SPG | Stride Property Limited | Real Estate | 57% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| VCT | Vector Limited | Utilities | 57% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 10% | neutral |
| ANZ | ANZ Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 56% | Uncertain | High | Guidance Transparency: 20% | - |
| DGL | Delegat Group Limited | Consumer Staples | 56% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| IFT | Infratil Limited | Utilities | 56% | Downside | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| KPG | Kiwi Property | Real Estate | 56% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| PEB | Pacific Edge Limited | Healthcare | 56% | Upside | High | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| GNZ | Goodman NZ | Real Estate | 55% | Uncertain | High | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SCL | Scales Corporation Limited | Industrials | 55% | Uncertain | High | Tone Consistency: 5% | optimistic |
| CRP | Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited | Industrials | 54% | Downside | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| ERD | EROAD | Industrials | 54% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 14% | mixed |
| MFB | My Food Bag Group Limited | Financials | 54% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| WIN | Winton Land Limited | Real Estate | 54% | Uncertain | Moderate | Forward-Looking Density: 35% | mixed |
| DOW | Downer EDI Limited | Industrials | 53% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 10% | neutral |
| LIC | Livestock Improvement Corporation Limited | Financials | 53% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 10% | optimistic |
| PGW | PGG Wrightson Limited | Industrials | 53% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| SAN | Sanford Limited | Consumer Staples | 53% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | mixed |
| SKT | Sky Network Television Limited | Communication Services | 53% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 0% | optimistic |
| VGL | Vista Group International Limited | Information Technology | 53% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| BFG | Burger Fuel Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 52% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | defensive |
| IKE | ikeGPS Group Limited | Materials | 52% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| POT | Port of Tauranga Limited | Industrials | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Guidance Transparency: 40% | - |
| VNT | Ventia Services Group Limited | Industrials | 51% | Uncertain | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SKL | Skellerup Holdings Limited | Industrials | 50% | Downside | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 3% | optimistic |
| VSL | Vulcan Steel Limited | Materials | 50% | Downside | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | cautious |
| HGH | Heartland Group Holdings Limited | Financials | 48% | Uncertain | Moderate | Tone Consistency: 27% | optimistic |
| RAD | Radius Residential Care Limited | Healthcare | 47% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| SVR | Savor Limited | Consumer Staples | 47% | Downside | Moderate | Historical Pattern: 30% | cautious |
| TWL | TradeWindow Holdings Limited | Industrials | 46% | Downside | Moderate | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |
| PYS | PaySauce Limited | Information Technology | 45% | Downside | Moderate | Earnings Volatility: 15% | optimistic |
| BPG | Black Pearl Group Limited | Information Technology | 43% | Uncertain | Moderate | Capital Stress: 20% | optimistic |
| EBO | EBOS Group Limited | Healthcare | 39% | Inline | Low | Insider Alignment: 20% | optimistic |
| TAH | Third Age Health Services Limited | Consumer Discretionary | 39% | Inline | Low | Earnings Volatility: 35% | optimistic |
Financial health analysis for NZX companies using Beneish M-score (earnings manipulation), Piotroski F-score (financial strength), Altman Z-score (bankruptcy risk), interest coverage, and current ratio