Financial Distress Early Warning

8-factor model combining accounting quality scores, liquidity, revenue trends, cash flow health, and governance risk into a single distress probability. Based on patterns observed in historical NZ corporate failures.

Critical

High

Elevated

Healthy

41%

Avg Probability

131 companies

Ticker	Company	Sector	Distress Prob.	Risk Level	Key Signals
AFC	AFC Group Holdings Limited	Financials	78%	Critical	Z-score in deep distress zone (-18.11); F-score 1/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
TWL	TradeWindow Holdings Limited	Industrials	73%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-5.23); F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
WCO	WasteCo Group Limited	Industrials	73%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.36); F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
LOC	Locate Technologies Limited	Information Technology	71%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-5.52); F-score 1/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
ENS	Enprise Group Limited	Information Technology	67%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (1.02); Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
MKR	Manuka Resources Limited	Materials	65%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-0.11); F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
RGI	Rua Gold Inc	Materials	64%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-6002.59); F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
TRU	TRUSCREEN GROUP LIMITED	Industrials	64%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-22.16); F-score 1/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
KMD	KMD Brands Limited	Consumer Discretionary	62%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.07); F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
WBC	Westpac Banking Corporation	Financials	62%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.19); F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
CCC	Cooks Coffee Company Limited	Consumer Staples	61%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-1.94); Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
IFT	Infratil Limited	Utilities	61%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.93); Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
MEE	Me Today Limited	Consumer Staples	61%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-6.35); Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
MPG	Metro Performance Glass	Real Estate	61%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.21); Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
CNU	Chorus Limited	Communication Services	60%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.57); Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
PHL	Promisia Healthcare Limited	Healthcare	60%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-0.07); Interest coverage thin (1.3x)
MOV	MOVE Logistics Group Limited	Industrials	58%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.72); Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
RYM	Ryman Healthcare Limited	Healthcare	58%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.50); Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
ANZ	ANZ Group Holdings Limited	Financials	57%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.11); Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
CRP	Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited	Industrials	57%	High	Z-score in distress zone (1.33); F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
ARG	Argosy Property Limited	Real Estate	56%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (1.08); Current ratio critically low (0.08)
IPR	Iperion Limited	Real Estate	56%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-10.12); F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
RTO	RTO Limited	Information Technology	56%	High	Z-score in deep distress zone (-50.45); F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
CVT	Comvita Limited	Industrials	54%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (-0.01); Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
FSF	Fonterra Shareholders' Fund	Consumer Staples	54%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.75); F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
OCA	Oceania Healthcare Limited	Healthcare	54%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.97); M-score above earnings manipulation threshold
PFI	Property for Industry Limited	Real Estate	54%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.60); Current ratio critically low (0.05)
RUA	Rua Bioscience Limited	Healthcare	54%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (-0.69); F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
SKC	SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited	Consumer Discretionary	54%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.67); Current ratio critically low (0.21)
SVR	Savor Limited	Consumer Staples	54%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.29); Current ratio critically low (0.29)
AIR	Air New Zealand	Industrials	53%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.43); Current ratio below 1x (0.57)
ERD	EROAD	Industrials	53%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.15); Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
MEL	Meridian Energy Limited	Utilities	53%	Elevated	F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals; Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
RAD	Radius Residential Care Limited	Healthcare	51%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.90); Interest coverage thin (1.1x)
STU	Steel & Tube Holdings Limited	Materials	51%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.37); Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
BRW	Bremworth Limited	Consumer Discretionary	50%	Elevated	M-score above earnings manipulation threshold; Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
CHI	Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited	Energy	50%	Elevated	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
IPL	Investore Property Limited	Real Estate	49%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.89); Current ratio below 1x (0.74)
KPG	Kiwi Property	Real Estate	49%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.87); Current ratio below 1x (0.77)
PYS	PaySauce Limited	Information Technology	49%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.49); Current ratio below 1x (0.94)
AOF	AoFrio Limited	Financials	48%	Elevated	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
FWL	Foley Wines Limited	Consumer Staples	48%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (1.01)
HGH	Heartland Group Holdings Limited	Financials	48%	Elevated	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
NZL	New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited	Real Estate	48%	Elevated	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
VHP	Vital Healthcare Property Trust	Real Estate	48%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.92)
IKE	ikeGPS Group Limited	Materials	47%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.77)
PEB	Pacific Edge Limited	Healthcare	47%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.70); F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
SUM	Summerset Group Holdings Limited	Healthcare	47%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.86)
PCT	Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited	Real Estate	46%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.90)
RBD	Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited	Consumer Discretionary	46%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.40)
SML	Synlait Milk Limited	Consumer Staples	46%	Elevated	Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt; Current ratio below 1x (0.68)
VCT	Vector Limited	Utilities	46%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.67)
AGL	Accordant Group Limited	Utilities	45%	Elevated	Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
GEN	General Capital Limited	Financials	45%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (0.30)
SEK	Seeka Limited	Consumer Staples	45%	Elevated	M-score above earnings manipulation threshold
TCM	Taiko Critical Minerals Limited	Materials	45%	Elevated	Weak governance score (17.14/100)
THL	Tourism Holdings Limited	Consumer Discretionary	45%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.21)
WHS	The Warehouse Group Limited	Consumer Discretionary	45%	Elevated	Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk; Current ratio below 1x (0.91)
ARB	ArborGen Holdings Limited	Industrials	44%	Elevated	Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
BPG	Black Pearl Group Limited	Real Estate	43%	Elevated	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals; Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
UVA	Uvre Limited	Materials	43%	Elevated	—
VNT	Ventia Services Group Limited	Industrials	43%	Elevated	F-score 1/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
MEX	Minerals Exploration Limited	Materials	42%	Elevated	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals; Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
NZM	NZME Limited	Communication Services	42%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.16); Current ratio below 1x (0.85)
FBU	Fletcher Building	Materials	41%	Elevated	F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals
GNE	Genesis Energy Limited	Utilities	41%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.17)
PLP	Private Land and Property Fund	Real Estate	41%	Elevated	F-score 1/9 indicates very weak fundamentals; Weak governance score (29.66/100)
CDI	CDL Investments New Zealand Limited	Real Estate	40%	Elevated	F-score 1/9 indicates very weak fundamentals; M-score above earnings manipulation threshold
CO2	Carbon Fund	Financials	40%	Elevated	F-score 1/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
MFB	My Food Bag Group Limited	Financials	40%	Elevated	M-score above earnings manipulation threshold; Current ratio critically low (0.19)
SKO	Serko Limited	Industrials	40%	Elevated	F-score 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals; Negative interest coverage — cannot service debt
ALF	Allied Farmers Limited	Financials	39%	Elevated	Z-score in deep distress zone (-2.01)
TRA	Turners Automotive Group	Consumer Discretionary	39%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.59)
SPG	Stride Property Limited	Real Estate	38%	Elevated	Z-score in distress zone (1.22)
APL	Asset Plus	Real Estate	37%	Elevated	M-score above earnings manipulation threshold; Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
BIF	Booster Innovation Fund	Financials	37%	Elevated	F-score 1/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
CEN	Contact Energy Limited	Utilities	37%	Elevated	—
MHJ	Michael Hill International Limited	Consumer Discretionary	37%	Elevated	—
DOW	Downer EDI Limited	Industrials	36%	Elevated	Current ratio below 1x (0.91)
BFG	Burger Fuel Group Limited	Consumer Discretionary	35%	Watch	Z-score in distress zone (1.48)
BIT	The Bankers Investment Trust PLC	Financials	35%	Watch	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
MCY	Mercury NZ Limited	Utilities	35%	Watch	Z-score in distress zone (1.59)
SMI	Santana Minerals Ltd	Materials	35%	Watch	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
GMT	Goodman Property Trust	Real Estate	34%	Watch	M-score above earnings manipulation threshold; Current ratio critically low (0.08)
TGG	T&G Global Limited	Consumer Staples	34%	Watch	—
AIA	Auckland International Airport Limited	Industrials	33%	Watch	—
BRM	Barramundi Limited	Financials	33%	Watch	F-score 2/9 indicates very weak fundamentals
LIC	Livestock Improvement Corporation Limited	Financials	33%	Watch	—
MLN	Marlin Global Limited	Financials	33%	Watch	M-score above earnings manipulation threshold
SKT	Sky Network Television Limited	Communication Services	33%	Watch	—
EBO	EBOS Group Limited	Healthcare	32%	Watch	—
FCT	F&C INVESTMENT TRUST PLC	Financials	32%	Watch	—
NZX	NZX Limited	Financials	32%	Watch	—
PGW	PGG Wrightson Limited	Industrials	32%	Watch	—
POT	Port of Tauranga Limited	Industrials	32%	Watch	M-score above earnings manipulation threshold; Current ratio below 1x (0.72)
SCT	Scott Technology Limited	Industrials	32%	Watch	—
GXH	Green Cross Health Limited	Healthcare	31%	Watch	Current ratio below 1x (0.97)
HFL	Henderson Far East Income Limited	Financials	31%	Watch	Current ratio critically low (0.46)
KFL	Kingfish Limited	Financials	30%	Watch	M-score above earnings manipulation threshold
SPK	Spark New Zealand Limited	Communication Services	29%	Watch	—
AFT	AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited	Healthcare	28%	Watch	Interest coverage below 1x — debt service at risk
DGL	Delegat Group Limited	Consumer Staples	28%	Watch	—
SCL	Scales Corporation Limited	Industrials	28%	Watch	—
WIN	Winton Land Limited	Real Estate	28%	Watch	—
MCK	Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited	Consumer Discretionary	27%	Watch	—
NTL	New Talisman Gold Mines Ltd	Industrials	27%	Watch	—
RAK	Rakon Limited	Information Technology	27%	Watch	—
TEM	Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC	Financials	27%	Watch	Current ratio below 1x (0.99)
BAI	Being AI	Healthcare	25%	Watch	—
TAH	Third Age Health Services Limited	Consumer Discretionary	25%	Watch	—
VGL	Vista Group International Limited	Information Technology	25%	Watch	—
2CC	2 Cheap Cars Group Limited	Financials	24%	Watch	—
FRW	Freightways Group Limited	Industrials	24%	Watch	Current ratio below 1x (0.83)
SKL	Skellerup Holdings Limited	Industrials	22%	Watch	—
AFI	Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited	Financials	21%	Watch	—
CMO	The Colonial Motor Company Limited	Consumer Discretionary	21%	Watch	—
FCG	Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited	Consumer Staples	21%	Watch	—
GTK	Gentrack Group Limited	Information Technology	21%	Watch	—
NPH	Napier Port Holdings Limited	Industrials	21%	Watch	—
NZK	New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited	Consumer Staples	21%	Watch	—
SPN	South Port New Zealand Limited	Industrials	21%	Watch	—
TWR	Tower Limited	Financials	21%	Watch	—
VSL	Vulcan Steel Limited	Materials	21%	Watch	—
MFT	Mainfreight Limited	Industrials	20%	Watch	—
ATM	The a2 Milk Company Limited	Consumer Staples	18%	Watch	—
BGP	Briscoe Group Limited	Consumer Discretionary	18%	Watch	—
BLT	BLIS Technologies Limited	Consumer Staples	18%	Watch	—
FPH	Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited	Healthcare	18%	Watch	—
HLG	Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited	Consumer Discretionary	18%	Watch	—
SAN	Sanford Limited	Consumer Staples	18%	Watch	—
SDL	Solution Dynamics Limited	Consumer Discretionary	18%	Watch	—

Methodology

Altman Z-Score (25%): Bankruptcy probability from working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, equity/debt ratios
Piotroski F-Score (15%): Financial strength from 9 binary profitability, leverage, and efficiency signals
Beneish M-Score (10%): Earnings manipulation risk from 8 financial ratios
Interest Coverage (15%): Ability to service debt from operating earnings
Current Ratio (10%): Short-term liquidity — can the company pay near-term obligations?
Revenue Trend (10%): Multi-year revenue trajectory and consecutive loss detection
Cash Flow Health (10%): Operating cash flow adequacy relative to financing needs
Governance Risk (5%): Weak governance amplifies financial distress risk

Risk Levels

Healthy (0-15%): Strong financials across all factors
Watch (16-35%): Some factors below ideal — monitor
Elevated (36-55%): Multiple risk factors present
High (56-75%): Significant distress indicators — matches patterns seen in pre-failure NZ companies
Critical (76-100%): Multiple severe distress signals — historically associated with corporate failure

Data sourced from publicly available records. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.