What separates successful whales from unsuccessful ones? Discover patterns in holding periods, sectors, and timing.
Optimal Holding Period
2-3 years
Highest win rate: 83.3%
24 positions • $170.3M total P&L
Best Returns Timeframe
3+ years
Avg return: +70.7%
41 positions tracked
Winner vs Loser
Winners hold for:
743 days
Losers hold for:
635 days
Win Rate by Holding Period
Does holding longer lead to better returns? Analyze win rates across different timeframes.
| Holding Period | Positions | Win Rate | Avg Return | Total P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-90 days | 177 | 8.5% | +0.8% | +$29.5M |
| 91-180 days | 18 | 55.6% | +10.1% | +$43.9M |
| 181-365 days (6m-1y) | 28 | 64.3% | +11.6% | +$1174.8M |
| 1-2 years | 28 | 64.3% | +45.5% | $-157.8M |
| 2-3 years | 24 | 83.3%🏆 | +46.9% | +$170.3M |
| 3+ years | 41 | 65.9% | +70.7%⭐ | $-316.1M |
Winning Trades Profile
Total Winners
108
Avg Holding Period
743 days
(2.0 years)
Avg Return
+67.7%
Pattern: Winning whales tend to hold positions for longer periods and achieve +68% average returns.
Losing Trades Profile
Total Losers
56
Avg Holding Period
635 days
(1.7 years)
Avg Return
-24.3%
Pattern: Losing positions are held for shorter periods on average, suggesting quick exits from declining positions.
Sector Holding Patterns
Do certain sectors require longer holding periods for success?
| Sector | Positions | Avg Holding | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 17 | 215 days (0.6 yrs) | 52.9% |
| Information Technology | 24 | 558 days (1.5 yrs) | 50.0% |
| Utilities | 34 | 421 days (1.2 yrs) | 47.1% |
| Financials | 21 | 563 days (1.5 yrs) | 38.1% |
| Communication Services | 58 | 417 days (1.1 yrs) | 37.9% |
| Consumer Staples | 29 | 326 days (0.9 yrs) | 31.0% |
| Materials | 7 | 399 days (1.1 yrs) | 28.6% |
| Healthcare | 69 | 315 days (0.9 yrs) | 27.5% |
| Industrials | 56 | 257 days (0.7 yrs) | 19.6% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 1 | 0 days (0.0 yrs) | 0.0% |
Key Takeaways
- Optimal Holding: The 2-3 years timeframe shows the highest win rate at 83%
- Best Returns: Maximum average returns occur in the 3+ years period (+71%)
- Hold Time Matters: Winners hold for an average of 743 days compared to 635 days for losers (+108 day difference)
- Sector Variations: Different sectors show different optimal holding patterns, with Real Estate showing the highest win rate
Note: These patterns are based on historical substantial shareholder disclosures (5%+ stakes). Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individual circumstances vary significantly.