Get NZX governance insights in your inbox
Weekly digest of board changes, insider trades, and market signals. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Get NZX governance insights in your inbox
Weekly digest of board changes, insider trades, and market signals. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Rugby Performance and NZX 50 Returns (2002-2024)
Wall Street has the Super Bowl Indicator. We asked the NZ equivalent: is there any observable relationship between All Blacks test match performance and NZX 50 annual returns? We examined 23 years of data across 268 test matches.
Published 2 April 2026 | 23 years of data | 268+ All Blacks tests
The correlation between the All Blacks win rate and the NZX 50 annual return is effectively zero. Based on this data, there is no meaningful linear relationship between the two variables.
| Year | AB Record | Win Rate | NZX 50 | Election | RWC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 12W - 1L | 92% | -5.3% | Yes | |
| 2003 | 10W - 3L | 77% | +25.3% | Yes | |
| 2004 | 11W - 1L | 92% | +25.1% | ||
| 2005 | 12W - 1L | 92% | +10.0% | Yes | |
| 2006 | 12W - 1L | 92% | +20.3% | ||
| 2007 | 12W - 3L | 80% | -0.3% | Yes | |
| 2008 | 13W - 2L | 87% | -32.8% | Yes | |
| 2009 | 10W - 4L | 71% | +18.9% | ||
| 2010 | 13W - 1L | 93% | +2.4% | ||
| 2011 | 12W - 1L - 1D | 82% | -1.0% | Yes | Yes |
| 2012 | 12W - 2L | 86% | +24.2% | ||
| 2013 | 14W - 0L | 100% | +16.5% | ||
| 2014 | 12W - 2L | 86% | +17.6% | Yes | |
| 2015 | 12W - 1L | 92% | +13.6% | Yes | |
| 2016 | 13W - 1L | 93% | +8.8% | ||
| 2017 | 11W - 3L | 79% | +22.0% | Yes | |
| 2018 | 12W - 2L | 86% | +4.9% | ||
| 2019 | 11W - 4L | 73% | +30.4% | Yes | |
| 2020 | 2W - 2L | 50% | +13.9% | Yes | |
| 2021 | 12W - 3L | 80% | -0.4% | ||
| 2022 | 8W - 5L | 62% | -12.0% | ||
| 2023 | 9W - 3L | 75% | +2.6% | Yes | Yes |
| 2024 | 7W - 3L | 70% | +11.4% |
All Blacks records for 2002-2009 are approximate, compiled from historical match data. Win rates for 2010-2024 sourced from compiled public records. NZX 50 returns are total returns including reinvested dividends.
While the overall correlation is zero, grouping years by All Blacks win rate reveals a counterintuitive pattern in the historical data.
| AB Season | Win Rate | Typical Record | Years | Avg NZX | Median NZX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite | 90%+ | 12-14W, 0-1L | 8 | +11.4% | +11.8% |
| Strong | 80-89% | 11-13W, 2-3L | 7 | +1.7% | -0.3% |
| Good | 70-79% | 9-11W, 3-4L | 6 | +18.5% | +20.5% |
| Below par | <70% | 2-8W, 2-5L | 2 | +1.0% | +1.0% |
The highlighted row indicates that years with an All Blacks win rate of 70-79% (approximately 9-11 wins and 3-4 losses per year) have historically coincided with the highest average NZX 50 returns. This pattern may reflect "rebound year" dynamics where both the market and the team are recovering from difficult periods, rather than any causal link.
| Year | AB Record | NZX Return | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 10W - 3L | +25.3% | RWC semi-final exit; post-dotcom recovery |
| 2009 | 10W - 4L | +18.9% | Tougher AB year; post-GFC rebound |
| 2017 | 11W - 3L | +22.0% | Lions drawn series; global growth |
| 2019 | 11W - 4L | +30.4% | RWC semi-final exit; global rate cuts |
| 2023 | 9W - 3L | +2.6% | RWC final loss; rate hiking cycle |
| 2024 | 7W - 3L | +11.4% | Robertson era begins; rates easing |
Five of six years produced positive returns. The pattern suggests these may be "recovery" years where both the AB season and the market are rebounding from prior difficulty — 2003 followed the dotcom bust, 2009 followed the GFC, 2019 followed a flat 2018.
| Category | Years | Avg NZX Return |
|---|---|---|
| NZ did not win the RWC | 2003, 2007, 2019, 2023 | +14.5% |
| NZ won the RWC | 2011, 2015 | +6.3% |
| All RWC years | 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023 | +11.8% |
| Non-RWC years | 17 years | +8.6% |
Historically, the NZX has performed better in years where NZ did not win the Rugby World Cup. With only two RWC wins in the dataset (2011, 2015) and four non-winning RWC years, the sample is far too small for any meaningful conclusion. The "NZ lost" bucket includes 2003 (+25.3%) and 2019 (+30.4%), both global recovery years.
While the overall correlation is zero, the bucket-level pattern (70-79% win rate years coinciding with higher NZX returns) has several possible non-causal explanations:
Data sourced from S&P/NZX index data, allblacks.com historical records, Elections NZ. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
NZ Governance Power Index — top directors, board interlocks, auditor concentration, and multi-board analysis.
Interactive force-directed visualization of board interlocks across NZX, charities, iwi, and public sector.
Auditor market concentration, tenure analysis, and director-auditor independence.