Do NZX leaders' AGM speeches match actual company performance?
Compares Language Intelligence Score sentiment against stock returns and financial results. Identifies companies where speech tone diverges significantly from reality.
| Sector | Companies | Avg Divergence | Over-optimistic | Under-selling | Aligned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 7 | 98 | 6 | 1 | -- |
| Utilities | 6 | 89 | 5 | -- | 1 |
| Healthcare | 10 | 88 | 9 | 1 | -- |
| Materials | 5 | 78 | 5 | -- | -- |
| Financials | 12 | 73 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 62 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Information Technology | 6 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 12 | 55 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| Industrials | 17 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 4 |
| Communication Services | 1 | 46 | 1 | -- | -- |
| Energy | 1 | 35 | -- | 1 | -- |
| Company | Speaker | Year | Sentiment | LIS | 1Y Return | Profit Change | Divergence | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RAD RAD Radius Residential Care Limited | Chair Brien Cree | FY2023 | +0.68 | 72 | -- | -177.8% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
GMT GMT Goodman Property Trust | Chair John Dakin | FY2023 | +0.68 | 74 | -- | -118.1% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
AFT AFT AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited | Chair David Flacks | FY2025 | +0.68 | 71 | -- | -233.3% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
PFI PFI Property for Industry Limited | CEO Simon Woodhams | FY2022 | +0.68 | 77 | -- | -103.1% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
IFT IFT Infratil Limited | Chair Alison Gerry | FY2025 | +0.62 | 68 | -- | -119.3% | 162 | Over-optimistic |
AIR AIR Air New Zealand | Chair Dame Therese Eichelbaum | FY2022 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -102.4% | 162 | Over-optimistic |
KPG KPG Kiwi Property | Chair Chair | FY2023 | +0.58 | 68 | -- | -205.5% | 158 | Over-optimistic |
MCY MCY Mercury NZ Limited | Chair Scott St John | FY2025 | +0.58 | 70 | -- | -100.0% | 158 | Over-optimistic |
RYM RYM Ryman Healthcare Limited | Director (Re-election) David Pitman | FY2024 | +0.52 | 66 | -- | -98.1% | 150 | Over-optimistic |
RAK RAK Rakon Limited | Chair Lorraine Witten | FY2024 | +0.52 | 69 | -- | -96.9% | 149 | Over-optimistic |
BRW BRW Bremworth Limited | CEO Greg Smith | FY2022 | +0.71 | 76 | -- | -74.0% | 145 | Over-optimistic |
MEL MEL Meridian Energy Limited | CEO Mike Roan | FY2025 | +0.42 | 71 | -- | -205.4% | 142 | Over-optimistic |
NZK NZK New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited | Chair Mark Dewdney | FY2025 | +0.32 | 69 | -- | -446.7% | 132 | Over-optimistic |
MLN MLN Marlin Global Limited | Senior Portfolio Manager Sam Dickie | FY2025 | +0.32 | 63 | -- | -99.1% | 131 | Over-optimistic |
DGL DGL Delegat Group Limited | Chair Jim Delegat | FY2025 | +0.62 | 72 | -- | -62.6% | 125 | Over-optimistic |
NZX NZX NZX Limited | CEO Mark Peterson | FY2025 | +0.71 | 77 | -- | -46.4% | 117 | Over-optimistic |
WCO WCO WasteCo Group Limited | Chair Chair | FY2022 | +0.62 | 72 | -- | -47.3% | 109 | Over-optimistic |
BRM BRM Barramundi Limited | Chair Chair's Overview | FY2025 | +0.35 | 59 | -- | -71.9% | 107 | Over-optimistic |
ALF ALF Allied Farmers Limited | Chair Shelley Ruha | FY2025 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -44.5% | 107 | Over-optimistic |
MOV MOV MOVE Logistics Group Limited | Chair Lorraine Witten | FY2022 | +0.00 | 23 | -- | -115.8% | 100 | Over-optimistic |
STU STU Steel & Tube Holdings Limited | Chair Susan Paterson | FY2025 | +0.00 | 23 | -- | -294.4% | 100 | Over-optimistic |
WHS WHS The Warehouse Group Limited | Chair John Journee | FY2025 | +0.35 | 71 | -- | -63.0% | 98 | Over-optimistic |
PEB PEB Pacific Edge Limited | Chair Chris Gallaher | FY2021 | +0.68 | 68 | -- | -24.9% | 93 | Over-optimistic |
TRU TRU TRUSCREEN GROUP LIMITED | CEO Martin Dillon | FY2025 | +0.68 | 74 | -- | -20.0% | 88 | Over-optimistic |
VSL VSL Vulcan Steel Limited | Chair Russell Chenu | FY2024 | +0.35 | 65 | -- | -52.0% | 87 | Over-optimistic |
EBO EBO EBOS Group Limited | Chair Elizabeth Coutts | FY2025 | +0.62 | 72 | -- | -19.1% | 81 | Over-optimistic |
SKO SKO Serko Limited | Chair Claudia Batten | FY2022 | +0.58 | 70 | -- | -22.0% | 80 | Over-optimistic |
AFI AFI Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited | Chair Chairman | FY2020 | +0.38 | 66 | -- | -40.8% | 79 | Over-optimistic |
AFC AFC AFC Group Holdings Limited | Chair Howard Long | FY2022 | +0.35 | 60 | -- | -42.0% | 77 | Over-optimistic |
IKE IKE ikeGPS Group Limited | CEO Glenn Milnes | FY2025 | +0.68 | 76 | -- | -7.8% | 76 | Over-optimistic |
The divergence score measures the gap between what leaders say and what actually happens. It is calculated in three steps:
Example: A chair with sentiment +0.55 (= +55) for a company with 1Y return of -30% and profit change of -20% → Reality = (-30 × 0.6) + (-20 × 0.4) = -26 → Divergence = 55 − (-26) = 81 (over-optimistic).
Speech analysis from NZX AGM announcements via NLP extraction. Stock returns from market data. Financial results from NZX company announcements. This analysis is automated and may not capture nuance or context — use as a starting point for further research, not a definitive assessment.
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Data sourced from NZX company announcements and market data. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
