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Do NZX leaders' AGM speeches match actual company performance?
Compares Language Intelligence Score sentiment against stock returns and financial results. Identifies companies where speech tone diverges significantly from reality.
| Sector | Companies | Avg Divergence | Over-optimistic | Under-selling | Aligned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 6 | 104 | 5 | -- | 1 |
| Healthcare | 9 | 102 | 9 | -- | -- |
| Real Estate | 8 | 96 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Materials | 4 | 83 | 4 | -- | -- |
| Information Technology | 4 | 73 | 2 | 2 | -- |
| Financials | 10 | 69 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Industrials | 15 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 4 |
| Communication Services | 2 | 56 | 2 | -- | -- |
| Consumer Staples | 8 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 11 | 43 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Company | Speaker | Year | Sentiment | LIS | 1Y Return | Profit Change | Divergence | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RAD Radius Residential Care Limited | Chair Brien Cree | FY2023 | +0.68 | 72 | -- | -177.8% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
 GNZ Goodman NZ | Chair John Dakin | FY2023 | +0.68 | 74 | -- | -118.1% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
 AFT AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited | Chair David Flacks | FY2025 | +0.68 | 71 | -- | -233.3% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
 PFI Property for Industry Limited | CEO Simon Woodhams | FY2022 | +0.68 | 77 | -- | -103.1% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
 RUA Rua Bioscience Limited | Chair Anna Stove | FY2024 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -130.3% | 162 | Over-optimistic |
 IFT Infratil Limited | Chair Alison Gerry | FY2025 | +0.62 | 68 | -- | -119.3% | 162 | Over-optimistic |
 AIR Air New Zealand | Chair Dame Therese Eichelbaum | FY2022 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -102.4% | 162 | Over-optimistic |
 ERD EROAD | General Manager - eRUC Sabine Roberts | FY2026 | +0.58 | 73 | -- | -9513.3% | 158 | Over-optimistic |
 MCY Mercury NZ Limited | Chair Scott St John | FY2025 | +0.58 | 70 | -- | -100.0% | 158 | Over-optimistic |
 ATM The a2 Milk Company Limited | Chair Pip Greenwood | FY2025 | +0.68 | 74 | -- | -88.1% | 156 | Over-optimistic |
 RAK Rakon Limited | Chair Lorraine Witten | FY2024 | +0.52 | 69 | -- | -96.9% | 149 | Over-optimistic |
 PCT Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited | CEO Scott Pritchard | FY2025 | +0.72 | 76 | -- | -75.2% | 147 | Over-optimistic |
 MEL Meridian Energy Limited | CEO Mike Roan | FY2025 | +0.42 | 71 | -- | -163.4% | 142 | Over-optimistic |
 KPG Kiwi Property | Chair Simon Shakesheff | FY2026 | +0.62 | 74 | -- | -77.3% | 139 | Over-optimistic |
 MLN Marlin Global Limited | Senior Portfolio Manager Sam Dickie | FY2025 | +0.32 | 63 | -- | -99.1% | 131 | Over-optimistic |
 AGL Accordant Group Limited | CEO Jason Cherrington | FY2022 | +0.68 | 72 | -- | -52.5% | 121 | Over-optimistic |
 WCO WasteCo Group Limited | Chair Chair | FY2022 | +0.62 | 72 | -- | -47.3% | 109 | Over-optimistic |
 BRM Barramundi Limited | Chair Chair's Overview | FY2025 | +0.35 | 59 | -- | -71.9% | 107 | Over-optimistic |
 ALF Allied Farmers Limited | Chair Shelley Ruha | FY2025 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -44.5% | 107 | Over-optimistic |
 STU Steel & Tube Holdings Limited | Chair Susan Paterson | FY2025 | +0.00 | 23 | -- | -1038.5% | 100 | Over-optimistic |
 FPH Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited | Chair Scott St John | FY2022 | +0.68 | 76 | -- | -28.0% | 96 | Over-optimistic |
 PEB Pacific Edge Limited | Chair Chris Gallaher | FY2021 | +0.68 | 68 | -- | -24.9% | 93 | Over-optimistic |
 VSL Vulcan Steel Limited | Chair Russell Chenu | FY2024 | +0.35 | 65 | -- | -52.0% | 87 | Over-optimistic |
 EBO EBOS Group Limited | Chair Elizabeth Coutts | FY2025 | +0.62 | 72 | -- | -19.1% | 81 | Over-optimistic |
 AFI Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited | Chair Chairman | FY2020 | +0.38 | 66 | -- | -40.8% | 79 | Over-optimistic |
 TRU TRUSCREEN GROUP LIMITED | CEO Martin Dillon | FY2025 | +0.68 | 74 | -- | -9.0% | 77 | Over-optimistic |
 AFC AFC Group Holdings Limited | Chair Howard Long | FY2022 | +0.35 | 60 | -- | -42.0% | 77 | Over-optimistic |
 IKE ikeGPS Group Limited | CEO Glenn Milnes | FY2025 | +0.68 | 76 | -- | -7.8% | 76 | Over-optimistic |
 NTL New Talisman Gold Mines Ltd | Chair Chair | FY2022 | +0.35 | 65 | -- | -39.8% | 75 | Over-optimistic |
 APL Asset Plus | Chair Bruce Cotterill | FY2022 | -0.15 | 60 | -- | -88.5% | 74 | Over-optimistic |
The divergence score measures the gap between what leaders say and what actually happens. It is calculated in three steps:
Example: A chair with sentiment +0.55 (= +55) for a company with 1Y return of -30% and profit change of -20% → Reality = (-30 × 0.6) + (-20 × 0.4) = -26 → Divergence = 55 − (-26) = 81 (over-optimistic).
Speech analysis from NZX AGM announcements via NLP extraction. Stock returns from market data. Financial results from NZX company announcements. This analysis is automated and may not capture nuance or context — use as a starting point for further research, not a definitive assessment.
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Data sourced from NZX company announcements and market data. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.