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Do NZX leaders' AGM speeches match actual company performance?
Compares Language Intelligence Score sentiment against stock returns and financial results. Identifies companies where speech tone diverges significantly from reality.
| Sector | Companies | Avg Divergence | Over-optimistic | Under-selling | Aligned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 8 | 118 | 8 | -- | -- |
| Healthcare | 10 | 99 | 10 | -- | -- |
| Utilities | 5 | 74 | 4 | -- | 1 |
| Financials | 12 | 74 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| Materials | 4 | 67 | 3 | -- | 1 |
| Information Technology | 5 | 61 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Industrials | 18 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 4 |
| Communication Services | 2 | 56 | 2 | -- | -- |
| Consumer Discretionary | 12 | 54 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Consumer Staples | 9 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Energy | 1 | 35 | -- | 1 | -- |
| Company | Speaker | Year | Sentiment | LIS | 1Y Return | Profit Change | Divergence | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RAD Radius Residential Care Limited | Chair Brien Cree | FY2023 | +0.68 | 72 | -- | -177.8% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
 GNZ Goodman NZ | Chair John Dakin | FY2023 | +0.68 | 74 | -- | -118.1% | 168 | Over-optimistic |
 RUA Rua Bioscience Limited | Chair Anna Stove | FY2024 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -130.3% | 162 | Over-optimistic |
 AIR Air New Zealand | Chair Dame Therese Eichelbaum | FY2022 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -102.4% | 162 | Over-optimistic |
 PFI Property for Industry Limited | CEO Simon Woodhams | FY2022 | +0.68 | 77 | -- | -91.3% | 159 | Over-optimistic |
 KPG Kiwi Property | Chair Chair | FY2023 | +0.58 | 68 | -- | -205.5% | 158 | Over-optimistic |
 MCY Mercury NZ Limited | Chair Scott St John | FY2025 | +0.58 | 70 | -- | -100.0% | 158 | Over-optimistic |
 ATM The a2 Milk Company Limited | Chair Pip Greenwood | FY2025 | +0.68 | 74 | -- | -88.1% | 156 | Over-optimistic |
 RYM Ryman Healthcare Limited | Director (Re-election) David Pitman | FY2024 | +0.52 | 66 | -- | -98.1% | 150 | Over-optimistic |
 WIN Winton Land Limited | Chair Chris Meehan | FY2022 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -87.2% | 149 | Over-optimistic |
 RAK Rakon Limited | Chair Lorraine Witten | FY2024 | +0.52 | 69 | -- | -96.9% | 149 | Over-optimistic |
 PCT Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited | CEO Scott Pritchard | FY2025 | +0.72 | 76 | -- | -75.2% | 147 | Over-optimistic |
 BRW Bremworth Limited | CEO Greg Smith | FY2022 | +0.71 | 76 | -- | -74.0% | 145 | Over-optimistic |
 MEL Meridian Energy Limited | CEO Mike Roan | FY2025 | +0.42 | 71 | -- | -163.4% | 142 | Over-optimistic |
 MLN Marlin Global Limited | Senior Portfolio Manager Sam Dickie | FY2025 | +0.32 | 63 | -- | -99.1% | 131 | Over-optimistic |
 NZX NZX Limited | CEO Mark Peterson | FY2025 | +0.71 | 77 | -- | -46.4% | 117 | Over-optimistic |
 WCO WasteCo Group Limited | Chair Chair | FY2022 | +0.62 | 72 | -- | -47.3% | 109 | Over-optimistic |
 BRM Barramundi Limited | Chair Chair's Overview | FY2025 | +0.35 | 59 | -- | -71.9% | 107 | Over-optimistic |
 ALF Allied Farmers Limited | Chair Shelley Ruha | FY2025 | +0.62 | 71 | -- | -44.5% | 107 | Over-optimistic |
 MOV MOVE Logistics Group Limited | Chair Lorraine Witten | FY2022 | +0.00 | 23 | -- | -115.8% | 100 | Over-optimistic |
 ERD EROAD | Chair Susan Paterson | FY2025 | +0.00 | 23 | -- | +275.0% | 100 | Under-selling |
 STU Steel & Tube Holdings Limited | Chair Susan Paterson | FY2025 | +0.00 | 23 | -- | -1038.5% | 100 | Over-optimistic |
 PEB Pacific Edge Limited | Chair Chris Gallaher | FY2021 | +0.68 | 68 | -- | -24.9% | 93 | Over-optimistic |
 AFT AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited | Chair David Flacks | FY2025 | +0.68 | 71 | -- | -23.1% | 91 | Over-optimistic |
 TRU TRUSCREEN GROUP LIMITED | CEO Martin Dillon | FY2025 | +0.68 | 74 | -- | -20.0% | 88 | Over-optimistic |
 VSL Vulcan Steel Limited | Chair Russell Chenu | FY2024 | +0.35 | 65 | -- | -52.0% | 87 | Over-optimistic |
 SUM Summerset Group Holdings Limited | Chair Mark Verbiest | FY2025 | +0.62 | 72 | -- | -22.0% | 84 | Over-optimistic |
 EBO EBOS Group Limited | Chair Elizabeth Coutts | FY2025 | +0.62 | 72 | -- | -19.1% | 81 | Over-optimistic |
 SKO Serko Limited | Chair Claudia Batten | FY2022 | +0.58 | 70 | -- | -22.0% | 80 | Over-optimistic |
 AFI Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited | Chair Chairman | FY2020 | +0.38 | 66 | -- | -40.8% | 79 | Over-optimistic |
The divergence score measures the gap between what leaders say and what actually happens. It is calculated in three steps:
Example: A chair with sentiment +0.55 (= +55) for a company with 1Y return of -30% and profit change of -20% → Reality = (-30 × 0.6) + (-20 × 0.4) = -26 → Divergence = 55 − (-26) = 81 (over-optimistic).
Speech analysis from NZX AGM announcements via NLP extraction. Stock returns from market data. Financial results from NZX company announcements. This analysis is automated and may not capture nuance or context — use as a starting point for further research, not a definitive assessment.
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Data sourced from NZX company announcements and market data. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.