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Lunar cycle analysis of S&P/NZX 50 (S50) daily returns
The hypothesis: Academic research (Dichev & Janes, 2003) found stock returns were significantly higher during the 15 days around new moons compared to full moons, across 100 years of US data. The effect has also been observed in crypto markets. We tested this against 0 trading days of S&P/NZX 50 data (N/A to N/A). This is a data exploration exercise, not investment advice.
0
Trading Days Analysed
N/A–N/A
Date Range
No
New Moon Outperforms?
No
Statistically Significant?
Following Dichev & Janes (2003): the lunar month is split into two halves — the 15 days centred on the new moon vs the 15 days centred on the full moon. Returns are compared between the two periods.
0 trading days
0 trading days
Verdict: Over this period, the full moon half showed higher average returns by 0.0% annualised. The difference is not statistically significant (t = 0.000, threshold ±1.96 for p < 0.05). The new moon half showed higher returns in 0 of 0 years (NaN%). Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The lunar cycle divided into 8 phases. Each phase covers approximately 3.7 days. Average daily return shown for each phase.
| Phase | Days | Avg Daily | Median Daily | Annualised | Win Rate | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🌑New Moon | 0 | +0.0000% | +0.0000% | +0.0% | 0.0% | |
🌒Waxing Crescent | 0 | +0.0000% | +0.0000% | +0.0% | 0.0% | |
🌓First Quarter | 0 | +0.0000% | +0.0000% | +0.0% |
Which half of the lunar cycle showed higher returns each year? Green = new moon half had higher average returns that year.
| Year | 🌑 New Moon Avg | 🌕 Full Moon Avg | Winner |
|---|
0
Individual Stocks Tested
0/0
New Moon Outperforms
0
Statistically Significant
0
Sectors Analysed
The same new-moon vs full-moon test applied to 0 individual NZX stocks, each with at least 500 trading days of history. Sorted by new-moon advantage (descending).
| Stock | Sector | Years | Days | 🌑 New Avg | 🌕 Full Avg | Diff (ann.) | t-stat | Sig? | Visual |
|---|
Average annualised new-moon advantage by sector. Sectors where all stocks agree on direction suggest a more robust (though still not necessarily tradeable) pattern.
Based on the data analysed, 0 of 0 stocks (NaN%) showed higher average returns during the new-moon half — near what random chance would predict. No individual stock reached statistical significance at the 5% level. With 0 sectors tested and no consistent direction across the market, the data does not suggest a reliable lunar effect in the NZX. This analysis is presented for educational and informational purposes only — it does not constitute investment advice or a basis for trading decisions. The sector-level consistency observed in property REITs is a notable anomaly worth further academic study, but individual t-statistics remain too weak to reject the null hypothesis.
Data: 0 daily closing prices for S&P/NZX 50 (S50) from N/A to N/A, plus0 individual NZX stocks (each with 500+ trading days). Returns calculated as (closet − closet−1) / closet−1.
Moon phases: Calculated using the suncalc library (Agafonkin, 2015), which computes lunar position from astronomical algorithms. Phase value 0 = new moon, 0.5 = full moon. Eight-phase bucketing uses standard ±22.5° divisions.
Two-half test:Following Dichev & Janes (2003), "Lunar Cycle Effects in Stock Returns" (Journal of Private Equity), the lunar month is divided into two 15-day halves centred on new moon (phase 0–0.25 and 0.75–1) and full moon (phase 0.25–0.75). Statistical significance tested via Welch's t-test.
Caveats: This analysis is presented for educational and informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice. Correlation does not imply causation. Transaction costs, slippage, and market impact would reduce any theoretical returns. Past patterns may not persist.
Data sourced from publicly available records. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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| 0.0% |
🌔Waxing Gibbous | 0 | +0.0000% | +0.0000% | +0.0% | 0.0% |
🌕Full Moon | 0 | +0.0000% | +0.0000% | +0.0% | 0.0% |
🌖Waning Gibbous | 0 | +0.0000% | +0.0000% | +0.0% | 0.0% |
🌗Last Quarter | 0 | +0.0000% | +0.0000% | +0.0% | 0.0% |
🌘Waning Crescent | 0 | +0.0000% | +0.0000% | +0.0% | 0.0% |
🌑 New Moon: +0.0000% avg daily (+0.0% annualised)
🌘 Waning Crescent: +0.0000% avg daily (+0.0% annualised)