Get NZX governance insights in your inbox
Weekly digest of board changes, insider trades, and market signals. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Get NZX governance insights in your inbox
Weekly digest of board changes, insider trades, and market signals. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Lunar cycle analysis of S&P/NZX 50 (NZ50) daily returns
The hypothesis: Academic research (Dichev & Janes, 2003) found stock returns were significantly higher during the 15 days around new moons compared to full moons, across 100 years of US data. The effect has also been observed in crypto markets. We tested this against 5,731 trading days of S&P/NZX 50 data (2003-01-03 to 2026-04-10). This is a data exploration exercise, not investment advice.
5,731
Trading Days Analysed
2003–2026
Date Range
Yes
New Moon Outperforms?
No
Statistically Significant?
Following Dichev & Janes (2003): the lunar month is split into two halves — the 15 days centred on the new moon vs the 15 days centred on the full moon. Returns are compared between the two periods.
2,869 trading days
2,862 trading days
Verdict: Over this period, the new moon half showed higher average returns by 0.1% annualised. The difference is not statistically significant (t = 0.025, threshold ±1.96 for p < 0.05). The new moon half showed higher returns in 11 of 24 years (46%). Past patterns do not indicate future results.
The lunar cycle divided into 8 phases. Each phase covers approximately 3.7 days. Average daily return shown for each phase.
| Phase | Days | Avg Daily | Median Daily | Annualised | Win Rate | Visual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🌑New Moon | 709 | +0.0182% | +0.0650% | +4.6% | 54.0% | |
🌒Waxing Crescent | 724 | +0.0356% | +0.0351% | +9.0% | 51.8% | |
🌓First Quarter | 731 | +0.0514% | +0.0887% |
Which half of the lunar cycle showed higher returns each year? Green = new moon half had higher average returns that year.
| Year | 🌑 New Moon Avg | 🌕 Full Moon Avg | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | +0.0943% | +0.0901% | 🌑 New |
| 2004 | +0.0842% | +0.1019% | 🌕 Full |
| 2005 | +0.0730% | +0.0086% | 🌑 New |
| 2006 | +0.1218% | +0.0291% | 🌑 New |
| 2007 | +0.0013% | +0.0001% |
24
Individual Stocks Tested
13/24
New Moon Outperforms
1
Statistically Significant
11
Sectors Analysed
Average annualised new-moon advantage by sector. Sectors where all stocks agree on direction suggest a more robust (though still not necessarily tradeable) pattern.
FBU (Fletcher Building): Full moon half showed higher average returns by 28.7% annualised (t = -2.398, 6,372 trading days over ~25 years). This is the reverse of the Dichev & Janes prediction.
Transport — all 2 stocks (AIR, AIA) showed higher average returns during the new-moon half over the period analysed. Average difference: +46.7% annualised.
Property — all 4 stocks (GMT, ARG, KPG, PFI) showed higher average returns during the new-moon half over the period analysed. Average difference: +10.4% annualised. Lower-volatility REITs may produce less noisy readings, though this does not imply a tradeable pattern.
Tech — all 3 stocks (ERD, SCT, GXH) showed the opposite of the academic prediction, with higher average returns during the full-moon half over the period analysed. Average difference: -14.9% annualised.
Finance — all 2 stocks (HGH, GEN) showed the opposite of the academic prediction, with higher average returns during the full-moon half over the period analysed. Average difference: -25.6% annualised.
Based on the data analysed, 13 of 24 stocks (54%) showed higher average returns during the new-moon half — slightly above what random chance would predict. Only 1 of 24 stocks reached statistical significance at the 5% level. With 11 sectors tested and no consistent direction across the market, the data does not suggest a reliable lunar effect in the NZX. This analysis is presented for educational and informational purposes only — it does not constitute investment advice or a basis for trading decisions. The sector-level consistency observed in property REITs is a notable anomaly worth further academic study, but individual t-statistics remain too weak to reject the null hypothesis.
Data: 5,731 daily closing prices for S&P/NZX 50 (NZ50) from 2003-01-03 to 2026-04-10, plus24 individual NZX stocks (each with 500+ trading days). Returns calculated as (closet − closet−1) / closet−1.
Moon phases: Calculated using the suncalc library (Agafonkin, 2015), which computes lunar position from astronomical algorithms. Phase value 0 = new moon, 0.5 = full moon. Eight-phase bucketing uses standard ±22.5° divisions.
Two-half test:Following Dichev & Janes (2003), "Lunar Cycle Effects in Stock Returns" (Journal of Private Equity), the lunar month is divided into two 15-day halves centred on new moon (phase 0–0.25 and 0.75–1) and full moon (phase 0.25–0.75). Statistical significance tested via Welch's t-test.
Caveats: This analysis is presented for educational and informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice. Correlation does not imply causation. Transaction costs, slippage, and market impact would reduce any theoretical returns. Past patterns may not persist.
Data sourced from publicly available records. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Unified analyst consensus — target prices, guidance accuracy, earnings expectations across the NZX.
9-factor beat/miss probability model — guidance, tone, historical patterns, analyst consensus.
Predicted HY/FY reporting dates for all NZX companies based on historical patterns.
| +13.0% |
| 56.5% |
🌔Waxing Gibbous | 730 | +0.0354% | +0.0808% | +8.9% | 55.1% |
🌕Full Moon | 700 | +0.0153% | +0.0525% | +3.9% | 54.0% |
🌖Waning Gibbous | 705 | +0.0419% | +0.0626% | +10.6% | 54.6% |
🌗Last Quarter | 716 | +0.0348% | +0.0518% | +8.8% | 52.5% |
🌘Waning Crescent | 716 | +0.0538% | +0.0747% | +13.6% | 56.0% |
🌘 Waning Crescent: +0.0538% avg daily (+13.6% annualised)
🌕 Full Moon: +0.0153% avg daily (+3.9% annualised)
| 🌑 New |
| 2008 | -0.1147% | -0.1864% | 🌑 New |
| 2009 | -0.0282% | +0.1733% | 🌕 Full |
| 2010 | +0.0224% | +0.0000% | 🌑 New |
| 2011 | +0.0161% | -0.0201% | 🌑 New |
| 2012 | +0.0378% | +0.1656% | 🌕 Full |
| 2013 | +0.0590% | +0.0906% | 🌕 Full |
| 2014 | +0.0988% | +0.0330% | 🌑 New |
| 2015 | +0.0441% | +0.0603% | 🌕 Full |
| 2016 | +0.0530% | +0.0184% | 🌑 New |
| 2017 | +0.1249% | +0.0377% | 🌑 New |
| 2018 | -0.0240% | +0.0685% | 🌕 Full |
| 2019 | +0.0986% | +0.1169% | 🌕 Full |
| 2020 | +0.0570% | +0.0648% | 🌕 Full |
| 2021 | -0.0038% | +0.0048% | 🌕 Full |
| 2022 | +0.0731% | -0.1655% | 🌑 New |
| 2023 | -0.0094% | +0.0331% | 🌕 Full |
| 2024 | +0.0293% | +0.0620% | 🌕 Full |
| 2025 | -0.0310% | +0.0597% | 🌕 Full |
| 2026 | -0.1658% | +0.0460% | 🌕 Full |
| +0.4263% |
| +0.1143% |
| +78.6% |
| 1.72 |
| no |
| NZM | Media | 10 | 2,445 | +0.1214% | +0.0364% | +21.4% | 0.72 | no |
| GMT | Property | 19 | 4,814 | +0.0696% | +0.0091% | +15.2% | 1.29 | no |
| SUM | Aged Care | 14 | 3,608 | +0.0995% | +0.0394% | +15.1% | 1.16 | no |
| ARG | Property | 21 | 5,144 | +0.0571% | +0.0111% | +11.6% | 1.27 | no |
| KPG | Property | 17 | 4,377 | +0.0414% | +0.0109% | +7.7% | 0.80 | no |
| PFI | Property | 26 | 6,634 | +0.0566% | +0.0282% | +7.2% | 0.99 | no |
| SKL | Industrial | 24 | 6,001 | +0.0788% | +0.0507% | +7.1% | 0.58 | no |
| AIA | Transport | 26 | 6,636 | +0.0667% | +0.0471% | +5.0% | 0.52 | no |
| GNE | Utility | 12 | 2,993 | +0.0499% | +0.0375% | +3.1% | 0.24 | no |
| CEN | Utility | 26 | 6,634 | +0.0450% | +0.0375% | +1.9% | 0.23 | no |
| FPH | Healthcare | 26 | 6,636 | +0.0746% | +0.0737% | +0.2% | 0.02 | no |
| EBO | Healthcare | 26 | 6,635 | +0.0463% | +0.0494% | -0.8% | -0.09 | no |
| MCY | Utility | 13 | 3,226 | +0.0578% | +0.0637% | -1.5% | -0.11 | no |
| SPK | Telco | 26 | 6,636 | +0.0137% | +0.0227% | -2.3% | -0.23 | no |
| HGH | Finance | 7 | 1,852 | +0.0070% | +0.0349% | -7.0% | -0.32 | no |
| ERD | Tech | 12 | 2,910 | -0.0120% | +0.0254% | -9.4% | -0.33 | no |
| SCT | Tech | 26 | 6,634 | +0.0134% | +0.0515% | -9.6% | -0.66 | no |
| RYM | Aged Care | 26 | 6,634 | +0.0223% | +0.0670% | -11.2% | -1.01 | no |
| MEL | Utility | 12 | 3,110 | +0.0511% | +0.0975% | -11.7% | -0.77 | no |
| GXH | Tech | 26 | 6,573 | -0.0181% | +0.0840% | -25.7% | -1.24 | no |
| FBU | Industrial | 25 | 6,372 | -0.0234% | +0.0904% | -28.7% | -2.40 | p<0.05 |
| GEN | Finance | 14 | 3,559 | -0.0112% | +0.1642% | -44.2% | -1.06 | no |