Dividend Cut Probability: Signal Validation

How well does our 9-factor dividend cut probability model predict actual dividend reductions? This page runs live predictions against historical NZX dividend data to measure model accuracy.

Companies Analyzed

154

Historical Cuts Detected

41%

Detection Rate (Recall)

0.390

F1 Score

Confusion Matrix

Predicted risk level (High or above = "predicted cut") vs actual dividend outcome (20%+ DPS reduction = "actual cut").

True Positives

Predicted high risk, did cut

106

False Positives

Predicted high risk, no cut

False Negatives

Predicted low risk, actually cut

252

True Negatives

Predicted low risk, no cut

Model Metrics

Precision

Of flagged companies, how many actually cut

37.3%

Recall

Of actual cuts, how many were flagged

40.9%

F1 Score

Harmonic mean of precision and recall

0.390

Accuracy

Overall correct classification rate

61.5%

Factor Contribution Analysis

How often each risk factor appears in correctly predicted cuts (true positives) versus missed cuts (false negatives). Higher "True Positive" presence relative to "False Negative" indicates the factor contributes more to accurate predictions.

Risk Score Distribution: Cutters vs Non-Cutters

Distribution of cut probability scores for companies that actually cut dividends versus those that did not. Greater separation between the two distributions indicates better model discrimination.

Current Predictions — All Issuers

97 companies

Ticker	Company	DPS (c)	Cut Prob	Risk Level	DSS	DSS Rating	Cut 3yr?	Key Factors
MLN	Marlin Global Limited	189.9	95%	Very High	42	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising
APL	Asset Plus	0.4	85%	Very High	10	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Loss, Negative Payout, No Earnings Cover
MEL	Meridian Energy Limited	6.4	84%	Very High	54	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Payout Elevated, Payout Rising
BIT	The Bankers Investment Trust PLC	2.1	80%	Very High	37	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Loss, Negative Payout, No Earnings Cover
SPK	Spark New Zealand Limited	8.0	77%	Very High	33	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Softening, Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x
PCT	Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited	1.5	75%	Very High	30	Dangerous	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
HGH	Heartland Group Holdings Limited	10.0	75%	Very High	37	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x
CVT	Comvita Limited	1.0	75%	Very High	52	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
MOV	MOVE Logistics Group Limited	10.0	75%	Very High	45	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
AIA	Auckland International Airport Limited	6.5	69%	Very High	31	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Elevated, Cover Thin
ALF	Allied Farmers Limited	1.2	68%	Very High	60	Moderate	N	Earnings Declining, Negative Payout, Prior Cut History
2CC	2 Cheap Cars Group Limited	2.1	67%	Very High	47	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Stretched, Cover Thin
FBU	Fletcher Building	52.0	65%	Very High	23	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
RYM	Ryman Healthcare Limited	8.8	65%	Very High	38	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
VCT	Vector Limited	12.5	64%	Very High	53	At Risk	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x, Prior Cut History
BGP	Briscoe Group Limited	38.0	62%	Very High	37	Dangerous	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
KPG	Kiwi Property	8.4	60%	Very High	30	Dangerous	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
IPL	Investore Property Limited	11.3	60%	Very High	20	Dangerous	N	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
SDL	Solution Dynamics Limited	2.0	60%	Very High	55	At Risk	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
FWL	Foley Wines Limited	6.8	60%	Very High	40	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
MHJ	Michael Hill International Limited	1.8	60%	Very High	53	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
STU	Steel & Tube Holdings Limited	10.0	60%	Very High	59	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
WHS	The Warehouse Group Limited	20.0	60%	Very High	40	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
SKC	SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited	5.3	60%	Very High	40	At Risk	Y	Negative Payout, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
KMD	KMD Brands Limited	6.0	60%	Very High	44	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
VHP	Vital Healthcare Property Trust	2.4	56%	High	44	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
MFT	Mainfreight Limited	85.0	52%	High	60	Moderate	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
EBO	EBOS Group Limited	175.5	51%	High	48	At Risk	N	Earnings Softening, Payout Stretched, Cover Thin
ENS	Enprise Group Limited	2.0	50%	High	25	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
LIC	Livestock Improvement Corporation Limited	12.2	49%	High	43	At Risk	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x, Prior Cut History
MCK	Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited	3.0	46%	High	50	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History
RBD	Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited	18.0	46%	High	50	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History
KFL	Kingfish Limited	2.7	45%	High	42	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
FRW	Freightways Group Limited	69.2	44%	High	57	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
FCG	Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited	57.0	43%	High	49	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
FSF	Fonterra Shareholders' Fund	79.0	43%	High	48	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
PFI	Property for Industry Limited	4.4	42%	High	69	Moderate	Y	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
BAI	Being AI	6.0	42%	High	17	Dangerous	N	Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x, Frequent Raises
NPH	Napier Port Holdings Limited	25.0	41%	High	55	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
IFT	Infratil Limited	7.3	40%	High	34	Dangerous	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
MPG	Metro Performance Glass	3.6	40%	High	28	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises
HFL	Henderson Far East Income Limited	651.1	38%	Moderate	50	At Risk	N	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Frequent Raises
ARG	Argosy Property Limited	18.3	37%	Moderate	44	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
CNU	Chorus Limited	115.0	37%	Moderate	44	At Risk	N	Cover Below 1x, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
CEN	Contact Energy Limited	55.0	36%	Moderate	56	At Risk	Y	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Frequent Raises
NZK	New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited	2.0	36%	Moderate	45	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining
VSL	Vulcan Steel Limited	2.9	35%	Moderate	63	Moderate	Y	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
BRM	Barramundi Limited	2.6	34%	Moderate	54	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
WBC	Westpac Banking Corporation	355.3	33%	Moderate	59	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History, DPS Declining
AGL	Accordant Group Limited	7.2	30%	Moderate	47	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
SKT	Sky Network Television Limited	15.0	30%	Moderate	81	Safe	Y	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
SKL	Skellerup Holdings Limited	10.0	27%	Moderate	61	Moderate	Y	Cover Thin, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
GNE	Genesis Energy Limited	7.3	27%	Moderate	76	Moderate	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
HLG	Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited	55.0	27%	Moderate	59	At Risk	Y	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
CDI	CDL Investments New Zealand Limited	4.5	26%	Moderate	64	Moderate	Y	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
THL	Tourism Holdings Limited	3.0	24%	Low	63	Moderate	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
ANZ	ANZ Group Holdings Limited	593.4	24%	Low	62	Moderate	N	Earnings Softening, Payout Elevated, Cover Thin
GXH	Green Cross Health Limited	3.0	22%	Low	64	Moderate	Y	Payout Rising, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
MCY	Mercury NZ Limited	10.0	20%	Low	57	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
CHI	Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited	13.0	20%	Low	46	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
DOW	Downer EDI Limited	62.7	18%	Low	57	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
SUM	Summerset Group Holdings Limited	35.8	17%	Low	88	Safe	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
VNT	Ventia Services Group Limited	64.7	16%	Low	70	Moderate	N	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
ATM	The a2 Milk Company Limited	11.5	15%	Low	62	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
DGL	Delegat Group Limited	67.8	15%	Low	72	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
GTK	Gentrack Group Limited	5.0	15%	Low	53	At Risk	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
GEN	General Capital Limited	1.3	14%	Low	84	Safe	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
AIR	Air New Zealand	5.0	13%	Low	49	At Risk	Y	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
GMT	Goodman Property Trust	10.2	11%	Low	53	At Risk	Y	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
NZL	New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited	8.7	11%	Low	53	At Risk	N	Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
FPH	Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited	19.0	9%	Very Low	88	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
PGW	PGG Wrightson Limited	4.5	9%	Very Low	79	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
SPN	South Port New Zealand Limited	8.5	9%	Very Low	83	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
AFT	AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited	5.4	8%	Very Low	57	At Risk	N	Earnings Softening
RAD	Radius Residential Care Limited	1.0	7%	Very Low	74	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
MFB	My Food Bag Group Limited	2.1	7%	Very Low	56	At Risk	Y	Payout Rising, Prior Cut History
NZX	NZX Limited	3.0	7%	Very Low	64	Moderate	N	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
PLP	Private Land and Property Fund	4.6	5%	Very Low	53	At Risk	Y	Prior Cut History
TAH	Third Age Health Services Limited	24.0	0%	Very Low	87	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
SPG	Stride Property Limited	6.0	0%	Very Low	77	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
TRA	Turners Automotive Group	23.0	0%	Very Low	87	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
SEK	Seeka Limited	25.0	0%	Very Low	78	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
POT	Port of Tauranga Limited	16.7	0%	Very Low	46	At Risk	N	-
AFI	Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited	109.0	0%	Very Low	73	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
CMO	The Colonial Motor Company Limited	50.0	0%	Very Low	92	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
FCT	F&C INVESTMENT TRUST PLC	30.8	0%	Very Low	91	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
SCT	Scott Technology Limited	24.0	0%	Very Low	82	Safe	N	Prior Cut History
TEM	Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC	14.5	0%	Very Low	87	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
TWR	Tower Limited	14.5	0%	Very Low	54	At Risk	Y	Payout Rising, Prior Cut History
WIN	Winton Land Limited	0.6	0%	Very Low	83	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
NZM	NZME Limited	9.0	0%	Very Low	41	At Risk	N	Prior Cut History
SAN	Sanford Limited	15.0	0%	Very Low	83	Safe	N	Prior Cut History
SCL	Scales Corporation Limited	24.8	0%	Very Low	69	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
OCA	Oceania Healthcare Limited	1.9	0%	Very Low	62	Moderate	N	DPS Declining
BRW	Bremworth Limited	31.0	0%	Very Low	58	At Risk	N	-
VGL	Vista Group International Limited	3.3	0%	Very Low	33	Dangerous	N	Prior Cut History
TGG	T&G Global Limited	12.0	0%	Very Low	53	At Risk	N	-

Historical Accuracy by Year

For each year with dividend activity, the number of predicted vs actual cuts and the model's accuracy rate.

Year	Predicted Cuts	Actual Cuts	Correct	Total	Accuracy
2012	1	0	2	3	67%
2014	0	0	5	5	100%
2015	3	0	4	7	57%
2016	2	1	5	6	83%
2017	2	0	12	14	86%
2018	3	7	25	31	81%
2019	12	9	31	46	67%
2020	15	15	30	48	63%
2021	23	15	30	52	58%
2022	17	16	37	56	66%
2023	18	18	36	60	60%
2024	28	19	40	71	56%
2025	29	19	38	72	53%
2026	16	34	17	37	46%

Data sourced from publicly available records. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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