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How well does our 9-factor dividend cut probability model predict actual dividend reductions? This page runs live predictions against historical NZX dividend data to measure model accuracy.
Predicted risk level (High or above = "predicted cut") vs actual dividend outcome (20%+ DPS reduction = "actual cut").
Of flagged companies, how many actually cut
Of actual cuts, how many were flagged
Harmonic mean of precision and recall
Overall correct classification rate
How often each risk factor appears in correctly predicted cuts (true positives) versus missed cuts (false negatives). Higher "True Positive" presence relative to "False Negative" indicates the factor contributes more to accurate predictions.
Insufficient data for factor analysis.
Distribution of cut probability scores for companies that actually cut dividends versus those that did not. Greater separation between the two distributions indicates better model discrimination.
| Ticker | Company | DPS (c) | Cut Prob | Risk Level | DSS | DSS Rating | Cut 3yr? | Key Factors |
|---|
Data sourced from publicly available records. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Unified analyst consensus — target prices, guidance accuracy, earnings expectations across the NZX.
9-factor beat/miss probability model — guidance, tone, historical patterns, analyst consensus.
Predicted HY/FY reporting dates for all NZX companies based on historical patterns.