Dividend Cut Probability — Signal Validation | NZXplorer

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Confusion Matrix

Predicted risk level (High or above = "predicted cut") vs actual dividend outcome (20%+ DPS reduction = "actual cut").

True Positives

Predicted high risk, did cut

151

False Positives

Predicted high risk, no cut

105

False Negatives

Predicted low risk, actually cut

314

True Negatives

Predicted low risk, no cut

Model Metrics

Precision

Of flagged companies, how many actually cut

35.7%

Recall

Of actual cuts, how many were flagged

44.4%

F1 Score

Harmonic mean of precision and recall

0.396

Accuracy

Overall correct classification rate

60.9%

Current Predictions — All Issuers

98 companies

Ticker	Company	DPS (c)	Cut Prob	Risk Level	DSS	DSS Rating	Cut 3yr?	Key Factors
KPG	Kiwi Property	4.4	88%	Very High	30	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Softening, Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising
FWL	Foley Wines Limited	4.8	85%	Very High	13	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Negative Payout, No Earnings Cover
APL	Asset Plus	0.2	80%	Very High	25	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Loss, No Earnings Cover, Prior Cut History
BIT	The Bankers Investment Trust PLC	0.7	80%	Very High	40	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Negative Payout, No Earnings Cover
SPK	Spark New Zealand Limited	8.0	77%	Very High	43	At Risk	Y	Earnings Softening, Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x
MOV	MOVE Logistics Group Limited	10.0	75%	Very High	45	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
HGH	Heartland Group Holdings Limited	3.5	72%	Very High	40	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x
MEL	Meridian Energy Limited	6.4	69%	Very High	54	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Payout Elevated, Payout Rising
ALF	Allied Farmers Limited	2.4	68%	Very High	60	Moderate	N	Earnings Declining, Negative Payout, Prior Cut History
2CC	2 Cheap Cars Group Limited	2.1	67%	Very High	45	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Stretched, Cover Thin
EBO	EBOS Group Limited	57.0	66%	Very High	50	At Risk	Y	Earnings Softening, Payout Stretched, Cover Thin
MPG	Metro Performance Glass	11.0	65%	Very High	27	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
FBU	Fletcher Building	52.0	65%	Very High	32	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
BGP	Briscoe Group Limited	67.0	62%	Very High	37	Dangerous	N	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
MLN	Marlin Global Limited	189.9	61%	Very High	49	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Cover Below 1x, Recent Capital Raise
IPL	Investore Property Limited	3.3	60%	Very High	20	Dangerous	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
SDL	Solution Dynamics Limited	2.0	60%	Very High	55	At Risk	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
CVT	Comvita Limited	2.0	60%	Very High	52	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
AFI	Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited	77.5	60%	Very High	58	At Risk	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
WHS	The Warehouse Group Limited	10.0	60%	Very High	44	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
MHJ	Michael Hill International Limited	3.5	60%	Very High	53	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
STU	Steel & Tube Holdings Limited	16.0	60%	Very High	59	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
FSF	Fonterra Shareholders' Fund	40.0	58%	High	52	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
BAI	Being AI	12.0	55%	High	22	Dangerous	N	Earnings Softening, Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x
AIA	Auckland International Airport Limited	6.5	54%	High	31	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Elevated, Cover Thin
MCK	Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited	3.0	54%	High	61	Moderate	Y	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History, DPS Declining
HFL	Henderson Far East Income Limited	6.3	53%	High	47	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Frequent Raises
CNU	Chorus Limited	24.0	52%	High	39	Dangerous	Y	Cover Below 1x, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
KFL	Kingfish Limited	2.7	52%	High	47	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
RYM	Ryman Healthcare Limited	17.6	50%	High	38	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
RAK	Rakon Limited	1.5	50%	High	45	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss
ENS	Enprise Group Limited	4.0	50%	High	29	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
VCT	Vector Limited	12.5	49%	High	53	At Risk	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x, Prior Cut History
PCT	Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited	1.5	47%	High	37	Dangerous	Y	Cover Below 1x, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
RBD	Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited	54.0	46%	High	54	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History
NZK	New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited	4.0	46%	High	44	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History
SKC	SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited	15.3	45%	High	40	At Risk	N	Negative Payout, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
FRW	Freightways Group Limited	69.2	44%	High	70	Moderate	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
FCG	Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited	40.0	43%	High	54	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
PFI	Property for Industry Limited	4.4	42%	High	69	Moderate	Y	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
HLG	Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited	29.0	42%	High	51	At Risk	Y	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
NPH	Napier Port Holdings Limited	5.3	41%	High	62	Moderate	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
VHP	Vital Healthcare Property Trust	2.4	41%	High	44	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
KMD	KMD Brands Limited	6.0	41%	High	44	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss, Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
THL	Tourism Holdings Limited	3.0	39%	Moderate	63	Moderate	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
ARG	Argosy Property Limited	8.7	37%	Moderate	44	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
MFT	Mainfreight Limited	85.0	37%	Moderate	60	Moderate	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
WBC	Westpac Banking Corporation	232.3	36%	Moderate	65	Moderate	Y	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Frequent Raises
VSL	Vulcan Steel Limited	3.0	35%	Moderate	63	Moderate	Y	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
BRM	Barramundi Limited	2.6	34%	Moderate	54	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
SUM	Summerset Group Holdings Limited	35.8	32%	Moderate	80	Safe	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
AGL	Accordant Group Limited	16.7	30%	Moderate	47	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
LIC	Livestock Improvement Corporation Limited	24.4	29%	Moderate	57	At Risk	Y	Cover Below 1x, Prior Cut History
CDI	CDL Investments New Zealand Limited	8.0	26%	Moderate	72	Moderate	Y	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
IFT	Infratil Limited	7.3	25%	Moderate	44	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
POT	Port of Tauranga Limited	8.0	25%	Moderate	51	At Risk	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
ANZ	ANZ Group Holdings Limited	332.0	24%	Low	62	Moderate	N	Earnings Softening, Payout Elevated, Cover Thin
GXH	Green Cross Health Limited	3.0	22%	Low	64	Moderate	Y	Payout Rising, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
CHI	Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited	13.0	20%	Low	46	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
CEN	Contact Energy Limited	16.0	20%	Low	57	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
DOW	Downer EDI Limited	12.9	18%	Low	60	Moderate	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
SKT	Sky Network Television Limited	15.0	17%	Low	82	Safe	Y	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History
VNT	Ventia Services Group Limited	23.3	16%	Low	72	Moderate	Y	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
GNE	Genesis Energy Limited	7.3	15%	Low	70	Moderate	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
ATM	The a2 Milk Company Limited	11.5	15%	Low	62	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
VGL	Vista Group International Limited	2.1	15%	Low	37	Dangerous	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
MFB	My Food Bag Group Limited	2.1	14%	Low	86	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
GEN	General Capital Limited	1.7	14%	Low	84	Safe	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
AIR	Air New Zealand	3.8	13%	Low	49	At Risk	Y	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
SKL	Skellerup Holdings Limited	10.0	12%	Low	64	Moderate	Y	Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
GNZ	Goodman NZ	4.7	11%	Low	53	At Risk	Y	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
NZL	New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited	8.7	11%	Low	53	At Risk	N	Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
SPN	South Port New Zealand Limited	8.5	9%	Very Low	87	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
CMO	The Colonial Motor Company Limited	15.0	9%	Very Low	92	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
SAN	Sanford Limited	15.0	9%	Very Low	83	Safe	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
NZX	NZX Limited	3.0	7%	Very Low	88	Safe	N	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
PLP	Private Land and Property Fund	4.6	5%	Very Low	53	At Risk	Y	Prior Cut History
TAH	Third Age Health Services Limited	8.0	0%	Very Low	88	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
TRA	Turners Automotive Group	8.0	0%	Very Low	93	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
RAD	Radius Residential Care Limited	1.0	0%	Very Low	78	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
FPH	Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited	19.0	0%	Very Low	88	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
MCY	Mercury NZ Limited	10.0	0%	Very Low	57	At Risk	Y	Prior Cut History
SPG	Stride Property Limited	2.0	0%	Very Low	80	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
SEK	Seeka Limited	25.0	0%	Very Low	78	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
PGW	PGG Wrightson Limited	4.5	0%	Very Low	79	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
DGL	Delegat Group Limited	47.8	0%	Very Low	72	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
SCT	Scott Technology Limited	14.0	0%	Very Low	82	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
TWR	Tower Limited	14.5	0%	Very Low	54	At Risk	Y	Payout Rising, Prior Cut History
FCT	F&C INVESTMENT TRUST PLC	35.0	0%	Very Low	90	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
AFT	AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited	5.6	0%	Very Low	62	Moderate	N	-
NZM	NZME Limited	9.0	0%	Very Low	52	At Risk	Y	Prior Cut History
GTK	Gentrack Group Limited	8.0	0%	Very Low	57	At Risk	N	Prior Cut History
WIN	Winton Land Limited	0.6	0%	Very Low	83	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
TEM	Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC	10.5	0%	Very Low	87	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
SCL	Scales Corporation Limited	12.5	0%	Very Low	72	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
OCA	Oceania Healthcare Limited	3.2	0%	Very Low	61	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
BRW	Bremworth Limited	31.0	0%	Very Low	58	At Risk	N	-
TGG	T&G Global Limited	6.0	0%	Very Low	53	At Risk	N	-

Historical Accuracy by Year

For each year with dividend activity, the number of predicted vs actual cuts and the model's accuracy rate.

Year	Predicted Cuts	Actual Cuts	Correct	Total	Accuracy
2011	0	0	5	5	100%
2012	2	0	3	5	60%
2013	1	1	3	5	60%
2014	2	2	7	9	78%
2015	2	0	8	10	80%
2016	3	2	8	11	73%
2017	2	3	17	22	77%
2018	8	9	40	49	82%
2019	14	11	50	63	79%
2020	22	20	37	61	61%
2021	29	16	34	65	52%
2022	23	17	45	73	62%
2023	28	21	37	74	50%
2024	35	19	38	76	50%
2025	38	19	40	75	53%
2026	26	49	26	51	51%

Dividend Cut Probability: Signal Validation

Confusion Matrix

Model Metrics

Factor Contribution Analysis

Risk Score Distribution: Cutters vs Non-Cutters

Current Predictions — All Issuers

Historical Accuracy by Year

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