Dividend Cut Probability — Signal Validation | NZXplorer

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Confusion Matrix

Predicted risk level (High or above = "predicted cut") vs actual dividend outcome (20%+ DPS reduction = "actual cut").

True Positives

Predicted high risk, did cut

174

False Positives

Predicted high risk, no cut

120

False Negatives

Predicted low risk, actually cut

360

True Negatives

Predicted low risk, no cut

Model Metrics

Precision

Of flagged companies, how many actually cut

30.4%

Recall

Of actual cuts, how many were flagged

38.8%

F1 Score

Harmonic mean of precision and recall

0.341

Accuracy

Overall correct classification rate

59.7%

Current Predictions — All Issuers

98 companies

Ticker	Company	DPS (c)	Cut Prob	Risk Level	DSS	DSS Rating	Cut 3yr?	Key Factors
FWL	Foley Wines Limited	4.8	95%	Very High	13	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Negative Payout, No Earnings Cover
HGH	Heartland Group Holdings Limited	10.5	87%	Very High	40	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x
MEL	Meridian Energy Limited	28.9	84%	Very High	54	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Payout Elevated, Payout Rising
VHP	Vital Healthcare Property Trust	17.1	82%	Very High	20	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Loss, Negative Payout, No Earnings Cover
KPG	Kiwi Property	1.4	80%	Very High	30	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Softening, Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x
BIT	The Bankers Investment Trust PLC	0.7	80%	Very High	40	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Negative Payout, No Earnings Cover
SPK	Spark New Zealand Limited	8.0	77%	Very High	43	At Risk	Y	Earnings Softening, Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x
IPL	Investore Property Limited	1.6	75%	Very High	23	Dangerous	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising, Cover Below 1x
MOV	MOVE Logistics Group Limited	10.0	75%	Very High	38	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
AGL	Accordant Group Limited	16.7	65%	Very High	34	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
APL	Asset Plus	0.3	65%	Very High	25	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Loss, No Earnings Cover, Prior Cut History
PCT	Precinct Properties New Zealand Limited	9.7	65%	Very High	25	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Loss, No Earnings Cover, Frequent Raises
MPG	Metro Performance Glass	11.0	65%	Very High	27	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
VCT	Vector Limited	38.5	64%	Very High	53	At Risk	Y	Payout Unsustainable, Cover Below 1x, Prior Cut History
SDL	Solution Dynamics Limited	4.0	63%	Very High	55	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Unsustainable, Payout Rising
AIA	Auckland International Airport Limited	19.8	62%	Very High	31	Dangerous	Y	Earnings Declining, Payout Elevated, Cover Thin
WHS	The Warehouse Group Limited	10.0	60%	Very High	44	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
STU	Steel & Tube Holdings Limited	16.0	60%	Very High	59	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
GNE	Genesis Energy Limited	22.2	58%	High	59	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
FSF	Fonterra Shareholders' Fund	240.0	58%	High	52	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
HFL	Henderson Far East Income Limited	6.3	53%	High	47	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Frequent Raises
ARG	Argosy Property Limited	1.7	52%	High	52	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
CNU	Chorus Limited	24.0	52%	High	37	Dangerous	Y	Cover Below 1x, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
EBO	EBOS Group Limited	118.5	51%	High	50	At Risk	Y	Earnings Softening, Payout Stretched, Cover Thin
ALF	Allied Farmers Limited	2.4	50%	High	74	Moderate	N	Negative Payout, Prior Cut History
CVT	Comvita Limited	2.0	50%	High	42	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
RYM	Ryman Healthcare Limited	17.6	50%	High	41	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
KMD	KMD Brands Limited	6.0	50%	High	34	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
RAK	Rakon Limited	1.5	50%	High	45	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss
BRW	Bremworth Limited	31.0	50%	High	53	At Risk	N	Earnings Loss
ENS	Enprise Group Limited	4.0	50%	High	32	Dangerous	N	Earnings Loss, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
MLN	Marlin Global Limited	194.8	46%	High	47	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Cover Below 1x, Recent Capital Raise
MCK	Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand Limited	3.5	46%	High	64	Moderate	Y	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History
RBD	Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited	54.0	46%	High	54	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History
NZK	New Zealand King Salmon Investments Limited	4.0	46%	High	48	At Risk	N	Earnings Declining, Prior Cut History
SKC	SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited	15.3	45%	High	40	At Risk	N	Negative Payout, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
FCG	Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited	240.0	43%	High	54	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
MFT	Mainfreight Limited	257.0	42%	High	60	Moderate	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
NPH	Napier Port Holdings Limited	5.3	41%	High	62	Moderate	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
IFT	Infratil Limited	27.8	40%	High	44	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
KFL	Kingfish Limited	7.7	37%	Moderate	47	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
VSL	Vulcan Steel Limited	3.0	35%	Moderate	63	Moderate	Y	Earnings Declining, Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
CEN	Contact Energy Limited	56.0	35%	Moderate	57	At Risk	N	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
GNZ	Goodman NZ	1.8	34%	Moderate	56	At Risk	Y	Payout Elevated, Payout Rising, Cover Thin
NZL	New Zealand Rural Land Company Limited	6.3	34%	Moderate	57	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
2CC	2 Cheap Cars Group Limited	8.3	34%	Moderate	50	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
BRM	Barramundi Limited	5.8	34%	Moderate	54	At Risk	Y	Earnings Declining, Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
DOW	Downer EDI Limited	29.2	33%	Moderate	52	At Risk	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
SUM	Summerset Group Holdings Limited	3.8	32%	Moderate	83	Safe	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
VNT	Ventia Services Group Limited	46.8	31%	Moderate	64	Moderate	N	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
AIR	Air New Zealand	3.8	30%	Moderate	49	At Risk	Y	Earnings Loss, Prior Cut History
FRW	Freightways Group Limited	45.0	29%	Moderate	70	Moderate	Y	Payout Stretched, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
LIC	Livestock Improvement Corporation Limited	12.3	29%	Moderate	57	At Risk	Y	Cover Below 1x, Prior Cut History
SKL	Skellerup Holdings Limited	30.0	27%	Moderate	64	Moderate	Y	Cover Thin, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
PFI	Property for Industry Limited	15.6	27%	Moderate	65	Moderate	N	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
POT	Port of Tauranga Limited	25.7	27%	Moderate	54	At Risk	Y	Payout Elevated, Cover Thin, Prior Cut History
DGL	Delegat Group Limited	44.0	26%	Moderate	67	Moderate	Y	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
NZX	NZX Limited	3.2	26%	Moderate	67	Moderate	N	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
CDI	CDL Investments New Zealand Limited	2.0	26%	Moderate	67	Moderate	Y	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
HLG	Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited	29.0	25%	Moderate	61	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
WBC	Westpac Banking Corporation	907.8	25%	Moderate	62	Moderate	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
CHI	Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited	20.3	20%	Low	46	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
ATM	The a2 Milk Company Limited	73.9	20%	Low	67	Moderate	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
MCY	Mercury NZ Limited	10.0	20%	Low	57	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
OCA	Oceania Healthcare Limited	3.2	20%	Low	51	At Risk	Y	Frequent Raises, Prior Cut History
GXH	Green Cross Health Limited	8.5	17%	Low	64	Moderate	Y	Payout Rising, Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
VGL	Vista Group International Limited	2.1	15%	Low	37	Dangerous	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
ANZ	ANZ Group Holdings Limited	83.0	13%	Low	62	Moderate	Y	Earnings Softening, Prior Cut History
FCT	F&C INVESTMENT TRUST PLC	1.0	12%	Low	93	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
FBU	Fletcher Building	52.0	11%	Low	32	Dangerous	N	Recent Capital Raise, Prior Cut History
BGP	Briscoe Group Limited	10.0	10%	Low	64	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
SEK	Seeka Limited	65.0	10%	Low	52	At Risk	N	Prior Cut History
MFB	My Food Bag Group Limited	1.9	10%	Low	61	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
SPG	Stride Property Limited	2.0	9%	Very Low	80	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
FPH	Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited	71.0	9%	Very Low	88	Safe	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
SPN	South Port New Zealand Limited	37.5	9%	Very Low	87	Safe	N	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
SCT	Scott Technology Limited	4.0	8%	Very Low	61	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Declining
TAH	Third Age Health Services Limited	4.0	7%	Very Low	90	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History, DPS Already Declining
AFI	Australian Foundation Investment Company Limited	48.5	5%	Very Low	72	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
PLP	Private Land and Property Fund	1.4	5%	Very Low	56	At Risk	Y	Prior Cut History
SKT	Sky Network Television Limited	43.5	0%	Very Low	89	Safe	N	Prior Cut History
RAD	Radius Residential Care Limited	3.2	0%	Very Low	78	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
TRA	Turners Automotive Group	50.0	0%	Very Low	93	Safe	N	Prior Cut History
AFT	AFT Pharmaceuticals Limited	5.0	0%	Very Low	63	Moderate	N	-
MHJ	Michael Hill International Limited	4.0	0%	Very Low	59	At Risk	Y	Prior Cut History
SAN	Sanford Limited	5.0	0%	Very Low	87	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
TEM	Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust PLC	8.5	0%	Very Low	90	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
PGW	PGG Wrightson Limited	14.5	0%	Very Low	79	Moderate	Y	Prior Cut History
GEN	General Capital Limited	0.8	0%	Very Low	88	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
THL	Tourism Holdings Limited	22.3	0%	Very Low	70	Moderate	N	Prior Cut History
CMO	The Colonial Motor Company Limited	40.0	0%	Very Low	92	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
TWR	Tower Limited	14.5	0%	Very Low	56	At Risk	Y	Payout Rising, Prior Cut History
GTK	Gentrack Group Limited	8.0	0%	Very Low	57	At Risk	N	Prior Cut History
NZM	NZME Limited	12.0	0%	Very Low	44	At Risk	Y	Prior Cut History
SCL	Scales Corporation Limited	25.0	0%	Very Low	88	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
BAI	Being AI	12.0	0%	Very Low	36	Dangerous	N	-
WIN	Winton Land Limited	0.6	0%	Very Low	83	Safe	Y	Prior Cut History
TGG	T&G Global Limited	6.0	0%	Very Low	54	At Risk	N	-

Historical Accuracy by Year

For each year with dividend activity, the number of predicted vs actual cuts and the model's accuracy rate.

Year	Predicted Cuts	Actual Cuts	Correct	Total	Accuracy
2011	0	0	5	5	100%
2012	2	0	3	5	60%
2013	1	1	3	5	60%
2014	2	2	7	9	78%
2015	2	0	8	10	80%
2016	3	2	7	12	58%
2017	2	3	33	38	87%
2018	15	11	53	69	77%
2019	24	24	46	70	66%
2020	23	24	32	65	49%
2021	31	15	33	65	51%
2022	21	17	47	73	64%
2023	25	19	40	74	54%
2024	32	19	39	76	51%
2025	33	17	45	75	60%
2026	31	35	32	72	44%
2027	3	7	3	7	43%

Dividend Cut Probability: Signal Validation

Confusion Matrix

Model Metrics

Factor Contribution Analysis

Risk Score Distribution: Cutters vs Non-Cutters

Current Predictions — All Issuers

Historical Accuracy by Year

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